TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061529
Played Sep 2Finished
Gregory Kuzmenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116117––––
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:43 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeGregory Kuzmenko to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGregory Kuzmenko above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Gregory Kuzmenko at 64.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Gregory Kuzmenko 11–4 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kuzmenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Kuzmenko
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmenko 1701 vs Pohonov 1732
Pohonov
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmenko 20% vs Pohonov 40%
Pohonov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmenko 50% vs Pohonov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmenko -1 · Pohonov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kuzmenko) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmenko 1.57 / Pohonov 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Kuzmenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13061529
Kuzmenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 69 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Pohonov2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 47 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back25% 18 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmenko8wins
AwayPohonov2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKuzmenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmenko100%4 of 4
AwayPohonov33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmenko4Pohonov6n = 10Pohonov took 6 of 10
S2Kuzmenko9Pohonov1n = 10Kuzmenko took 9 of 10
S3Kuzmenko7Pohonov3n = 10Kuzmenko took 7 of 10
S4Kuzmenko5Pohonov2n = 7Kuzmenko took 5 of 7
S5Kuzmenko2Pohonov1n = 3Kuzmenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmenkoPohonovK − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.534.3+7.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmenkoPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 568 vs 251 / 48548.8%51.8%277 / 568 vs 251 / 485Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmenkoKuzmenko 1.57/Pohonov 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Kuzmenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kuzmenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 24:45G. Kuzmenko—811981O. Pohonov—11811113
WAug 27 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko—1111113O. Pohonov—5960
WAug 26 · 14:35G. Kuzmenko—61111113O. Pohonov—112531
WAug 21 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko—1111113O. Pohonov—9660
WAug 20 · 12:35G. Kuzmenko—811119113O. Pohonov—11791192
WAug 14 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko—1111113O. Pohonov—5670
WAug 13 · 18:35G. Kuzmenko—12711113O. Pohonov—1011391
WAug 12 · 20:30G. Kuzmenko—811811113O. Pohonov—11811982
WAug 7 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko—101214113O. Pohonov—12101271
LAug 6 · 15:35G. Kuzmenko—912141182O. Pohonov—1110166113
G. Kuzmenko10
WSep 3 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko2.251111113I. Sukovatyi1.579870WSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661182G. Kuzmenko2.25911116113WSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 07:05S. Maksymiv1.361187101G. Kuzmenko3.0061111123WSep 3 · 05:35G. Kuzmenko1.831111113V. Krokhmal1.835520LSep 2 · 18:35G. Kuzmenko2.50931151I. Sukovatyi1.5011113113WSep 2 · 16:35B. Chaikovskyi1.53911101172G. Kuzmenko2.38116123113LSep 2 · 14:35S. Maksymiv1.3641111113G. Kuzmenko3.00113641WSep 2 · 13:05G. Kuzmenko1.8351111223V. Krokhmal1.831188201LAug 30 · 24:45O. Pohonov2.7511811113G. Kuzmenko1.40811981
O. Pohonov10
WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.731510571V. Slozka2.00131211113LSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy1.6711241192O. Pohonov2.10611116113WSep 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2051790O. Pohonov1.611119113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101WSep 3 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.441111113I. Sukovatyi2.634530LSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123WAug 30 · 24:45O. Pohonov2.7511811113G. Kuzmenko1.40811981
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