TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078934
Played Sep 5Finished
Vitaliy Zharskiy
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116211411116911
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitaliy Zharskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitaliy Zharskiy above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 82 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Vitaliy Zharskiy at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Vitaliy Zharskiy 18–14 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:37What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zharskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-14 in 32
Zharskiy
Wrong
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zharskiy 1610 vs Pohonov 1752
Pohonov
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zharskiy 0% vs Pohonov 60%
Pohonov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zharskiy 20% vs Pohonov 50%
Pohonov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zharskiy -5 · Pohonov +1
Zharskiy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zharskiy) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohonov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZharskiy 1.67 / Pohonov 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Zharskiy)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13078934
Zharskiy1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 73 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it100% 38 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 55 of 66
Pohonov2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZharskiy6wins
AwayPohonov4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZharskiy leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZharskiy85.7%6 of 7
AwayPohonov100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zharskiy7Pohonov3n = 10Zharskiy took 7 of 10
S2Zharskiy6Pohonov4n = 10Zharskiy took 6 of 10
S3Zharskiy5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S4Zharskiy5Pohonov1n = 6Zharskiy took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZharskiyPohonovZ − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.632.6+4.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZharskiyPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 560 vs 257 / 49549.1%51.9%275 / 560 vs 257 / 495Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZharskiyZharskiy 1.67/Pohonov 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Zharskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pohonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy—11241192O. Pohonov—611116113
LJul 16 · 04:35V. Zharskiy—3119101O. Pohonov—11711123
LJul 15 · 12:05V. Zharskiy—61181492O. Pohonov—1161112113
LJul 14 · 21:30V. Zharskiy—6880O. Pohonov—1111113
WJun 18 · 08:35V. Zharskiy—11911113O. Pohonov—611881
WJun 13 · 20:15V. Zharskiy—11711113O. Pohonov—911631
WMay 28 · 08:35V. Zharskiy—1111113O. Pohonov—8570
WMay 26 · 23:30V. Zharskiy—111110123O. Pohonov—6912101
WMay 20 · 12:05V. Zharskiy—1111113O. Pohonov—3640
WMay 19 · 21:00V. Zharskiy—1111123O. Pohonov—95100
V. Zharskiy10
WSep 6 · 02:15V. Zharskiy1.4031111143R. Konkulovskyi2.751144121LSep 6 · 24:45V. Zharskiy1.5311117642B. Chaikovskyi2.38461111113WSep 5 · 23:15V. Zharskiy2.0011511113V. Krokhmal1.73611981LSep 5 · 20:15V. Zharskiy1.73414451V. Slozka2.00111211113LJul 16 · 10:35V. Zharskiy2.256860S. Maksymiv1.571111113LJul 16 · 09:05V. Zharskiy1.3611611262R. Konkulovskyi3.00811911113LJul 16 · 07:35V. Zharskiy2.384990A. Romanenko1.531111113LJul 16 · 06:05V. Zharskiy2.255840I. Sukovatyi1.571111113LJul 16 · 04:35V. Zharskiy1.673119101O. Pohonov2.1011711123WJul 15 · 18:05V. Zharskiy2.201111113S. Maksymiv1.618970
O. Pohonov10
WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.731510571V. Slozka2.00131211113LSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2051790O. Pohonov1.611119113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101WSep 3 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.441111113I. Sukovatyi2.634530LSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123LSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191WJul 16 · 04:35V. Zharskiy1.673119101O. Pohonov2.1011711123
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