TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061903
Played Sep 2Finished
Serhii Maksymiv
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161151113118––
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:03 and never touched — 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maksymiv to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Maksymiv above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Maksymiv at 70.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Maksymiv 28–15 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 15 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:03What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Maksymiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-15 in 43
Maksymiv
Correct
gap of 13 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymiv 1734 vs Pohonov 1758
Pohonov
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymiv 40% vs Pohonov 60%
Pohonov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymiv 50% vs Pohonov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymiv +1 · Pohonov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Maksymiv)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohonov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymiv 1.36 / Pohonov 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Maksymiv)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13061903
Maksymiv1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 154 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it92% 84 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it76% 114 of 151
Pohonov3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 47 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back25% 18 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymiv8wins
AwayPohonov2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMaksymiv leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymiv83.3%5 of 6
AwayPohonov25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymiv6Pohonov4n = 10Maksymiv took 6 of 10
S2Maksymiv9Pohonov1n = 10Maksymiv took 9 of 10
S3Maksymiv7Pohonov3n = 10Maksymiv took 7 of 10
S4Maksymiv4Pohonov1n = 5Maksymiv took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymivPohonovM − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.530.0+6.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymivPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime453 / 751 vs 251 / 48360.3%52%453 / 751 vs 251 / 483Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymivMaksymiv 1.36/Pohonov 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70%
Maksymiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maksymiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 28 · 21:30S. Maksymiv—91111113O. Pohonov—116351
WJul 23 · 08:35S. Maksymiv—1111113O. Pohonov—7970
WJul 22 · 16:05S. Maksymiv—1111113O. Pohonov—9870
WJul 21 · 21:30S. Maksymiv—811311113O. Pohonov—11611752
WJul 16 · 08:35S. Maksymiv—1111113O. Pohonov—6940
WJul 15 · 16:05S. Maksymiv—1111113O. Pohonov—2380
LJul 15 · 03:00S. Maksymiv—113871O. Pohonov—91111113
WJul 9 · 08:35S. Maksymiv—1111113O. Pohonov—9890
WJul 8 · 12:35S. Maksymiv—101111133O. Pohonov—1298111
LJul 7 · 21:00S. Maksymiv—61161162O. Pohonov—118117113
S. Maksymiv10
LSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992WSep 3 · 09:35S. Maksymiv1.7311812113V. Krokhmal2.005111091WSep 3 · 08:35S. Maksymiv1.67111011113I. Sukovatyi2.10412671LSep 3 · 07:05S. Maksymiv1.361187101G. Kuzmenko3.0061111123WSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191LSep 2 · 18:05B. Chaikovskyi2.20313311113S. Maksymiv1.61111111782LSep 2 · 17:05S. Maksymiv1.8391171172V. Krokhmal1.83116117113LSep 2 · 16:05S. Maksymiv1.73613911102I. Sukovatyi2.001111115123WSep 2 · 14:35S. Maksymiv1.3641111113G. Kuzmenko3.00113641WSep 2 · 02:00B. Chaikovskyi2.20119951S. Maksymiv1.6131111113
O. Pohonov10
WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.731510571V. Slozka2.00131211113LSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy1.6711241192O. Pohonov2.10611116113WSep 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2051790O. Pohonov1.611119113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101WSep 3 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.441111113I. Sukovatyi2.634530LSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123LSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191
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