TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079112
Played Sep 5Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1188111181311––
Vitalii Krokhmal
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Vitalii Krokhmal below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 81 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 66.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 25–9 Vitalii Krokhmal Vitalii Krokhmal has won 9 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chaikovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-9 in 34
Chaikovskyi
Correct
gap of 16 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1744 vs Krokhmal 1657
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 40% vs Krokhmal 20%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Krokhmal 20%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi +1 · Krokhmal -3
Krokhmal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Chaikovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krokhmal form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 1.44 / Krokhmal 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13079112
Chaikovskyi1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 88 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 61 of 75
Krokhmal2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 108 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi9wins
AwayKrokhmal1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyi100%4 of 4
AwayKrokhmal16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi4Krokhmal6n = 10Krokhmal took 6 of 10
S2Chaikovskyi7Krokhmal3n = 10Chaikovskyi took 7 of 10
S3Chaikovskyi6Krokhmal4n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi7Krokhmal1n = 8Chaikovskyi took 7 of 8
S5Chaikovskyi4Krokhmal0n = 4Chaikovskyi took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiKrokhmalC − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.437.2+5.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiKrokhmalBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 734 vs 154 / 33351%46.3%374 / 734 vs 154 / 333Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiChaikovskyi 1.44/Krokhmal 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi—1111113V. Krokhmal—4740
WSep 2 · 15:05B. Chaikovskyi—5111011113V. Krokhmal—11712892
WSep 1 · 23:00B. Chaikovskyi—91111113V. Krokhmal—113991
WAug 27 · 08:35B. Chaikovskyi—812611113V. Krokhmal—111011772
WAug 23 · 03:15B. Chaikovskyi—4111612113V. Krokhmal—114181082
WAug 19 · 03:00B. Chaikovskyi—1111113V. Krokhmal—9880
LAug 15 · 20:45B. Chaikovskyi—781171V. Krokhmal—11117113
WAug 13 · 05:05B. Chaikovskyi—971111113V. Krokhmal—11114992
WAug 12 · 12:05B. Chaikovskyi—14117113V. Krokhmal—1261191
WAug 12 · 01:30B. Chaikovskyi—12711113V. Krokhmal—1011851
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 6 · 02:45B. Chaikovskyi1.831191110123V. Slozka1.83811712102WSep 6 · 24:45V. Zharskiy1.5311117642B. Chaikovskyi2.38461111113WSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi1.61751141B. Chaikovskyi2.2011116113WSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992LSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661182G. Kuzmenko2.25911116113WSep 3 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501111113V. Krokhmal2.504740LSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123LSep 3 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi2.0011640I. Sukovatyi1.731311113WSep 2 · 18:05B. Chaikovskyi2.20313311113S. Maksymiv1.61111111782
V. Krokhmal10
LSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:15R. Konkulovskyi2.251211113V. Krokhmal1.5710890LSep 5 · 23:15V. Zharskiy2.0011511113V. Krokhmal1.73611981LSep 5 · 22:15V. Krokhmal1.7311115742V. Slozka2.00781111113WSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101LSep 3 · 09:35S. Maksymiv1.7311812113V. Krokhmal2.005111091LSep 3 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501111113V. Krokhmal2.504740WSep 3 · 06:35V. Krokhmal2.381111113I. Sukovatyi1.533380LSep 3 · 05:35G. Kuzmenko1.831111113V. Krokhmal1.835520LSep 2 · 19:05V. Krokhmal1.83871291O. Pohonov1.83111110113
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