TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061261
Played Sep 2Finished
Vitalii Krokhmal
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8117111210911––
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Pohonov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Krokhmal above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Pohonov at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Krokhmal 8–14 Oleksandr Pohonov Vitalii Krokhmal has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:24What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pohonov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-14 in 22
Pohonov
Correct
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krokhmal 1676 vs Pohonov 1717
Pohonov
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krokhmal 20% vs Pohonov 40%
Pohonov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krokhmal 20% vs Pohonov 50%
Pohonov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krokhmal -3 · Pohonov +1
Krokhmal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pohonov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohonov form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrokhmal 1.83 / Pohonov 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pohonov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13061261
Krokhmal1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pohonov1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrokhmal4wins
AwayPohonov6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPohonov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrokhmal50%2 of 4
AwayPohonov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krokhmal4Pohonov6n = 10Pohonov took 6 of 10
S2Krokhmal5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S3Krokhmal6Pohonov4n = 10Krokhmal took 6 of 10
S4Krokhmal5Pohonov4n = 9Krokhmal took 5 of 9
S5Krokhmal1Pohonov3n = 4Pohonov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrokhmalPohonovK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.041.2−1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokhmalPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 327 vs 252 / 48746.5%51.8%152 / 327 vs 252 / 487Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PohonovKrokhmal 1.83/Pohonov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pohonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pohonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 03:00V. Krokhmal—591291O. Pohonov—111110113
LAug 27 · 05:05V. Krokhmal—661171O. Pohonov—11117113
WAug 26 · 12:05V. Krokhmal—121111113O. Pohonov—148951
LAug 26 · 01:30V. Krokhmal—119871O. Pohonov—71111113
LAug 21 · 10:05V. Krokhmal—11911472O. Pohonov—911811113
WAug 20 · 17:14V. Krokhmal—1111113O. Pohonov—7880
LAug 20 · 16:05V. Krokhmal—91271162O. Pohonov—1110116113
LAug 17 · 03:15V. Krokhmal—811101382O. Pohonov—1171211113
WJul 27 · 22:15V. Krokhmal—11611113O. Pohonov—811771
WJul 12 · 03:15V. Krokhmal—611711113O. Pohonov—11911962
V. Krokhmal10
LSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:15R. Konkulovskyi2.251211113V. Krokhmal1.5710890LSep 5 · 23:15V. Zharskiy2.0011511113V. Krokhmal1.73611981LSep 5 · 22:15V. Krokhmal1.7311115742V. Slozka2.00781111113LSep 5 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi1.4411811133V. Krokhmal2.638118111WSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101LSep 3 · 09:35S. Maksymiv1.7311812113V. Krokhmal2.005111091LSep 3 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501111113V. Krokhmal2.504740WSep 3 · 06:35V. Krokhmal2.381111113I. Sukovatyi1.533380LSep 3 · 05:35G. Kuzmenko1.831111113V. Krokhmal1.835520
O. Pohonov10
WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.731510571V. Slozka2.00131211113LSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy1.6711241192O. Pohonov2.10611116113WSep 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2051790O. Pohonov1.611119113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101WSep 3 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.441111113I. Sukovatyi2.634530LSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123LSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191
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