TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13062861
Played Sep 2Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
1.32
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311114811911115
Maksymilian Rus
Away
3.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1311114811911115
H2H Rafal Gajda 27–13 Maksymilian Rus Maksymilian Rus has won 13 of their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.32 (70%)
Gajda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-13 in 40
Gajda
Correct
gap of 14 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1345 vs Rus 1101
Gajda
Correct
both rated, 244 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 60% vs Rus 40%
Gajda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 30% vs Rus 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda -1 · Rus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Gajda) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (60%) is below what odds imply (76%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 1.32 / Rus 3.10
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Gajda)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13062861
Gajda1.32
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 165 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it91% 73 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it74% 113 of 152
Rus3.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog30% won 69 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGajda5wins
AwayRus5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda50%4 of 8
AwayRusn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda8Rus2n = 10Gajda took 8 of 10
S2Gajda6Rus4n = 10Gajda took 6 of 10
S3Gajda5Rus5n = 10split evenly
S4Gajda4Rus4n = 8split evenly
S5Gajda1Rus4n = 5Rus took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGajdaRusG − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.041.3+2.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaRusBasisWin rate · lifetime394 / 767 vs 121 / 37951.4%31.9%394 / 767 vs 121 / 379Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.436.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaGajda 1.32/Rus 3.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.1%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 28 · 15:05R. Gajda—11119113M. Rus—291191
WJul 28 · 09:05R. Gajda—1111113M. Rus—7680
WJul 21 · 12:45R. Gajda—61111113M. Rus—117541
LJul 21 · 10:20R. Gajda—111291152M. Rus—514119113
WJul 7 · 12:20R. Gajda—1115133M. Rus—813110
LJul 7 · 08:20R. Gajda—128611122M. Rus—1011119143
LJun 30 · 12:45R. Gajda—1112118102M. Rus—514411123
WJun 30 · 10:20R. Gajda—131399143M. Rus—11111111122
LJun 16 · 12:45R. Gajda—111291042M. Rus—7101112113
LJun 16 · 10:20R. Gajda—6612101M. Rus—111110123
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282
M. Rus10
WSep 2 · 17:05M. Rus2.701111113W. Buczynski1.377890LSep 2 · 15:30M. Rus3.1510990R. Gajda1.301211113LSep 2 · 14:20M. Rus2.201691161B. Madej1.57141113113LSep 2 · 12:45M. Rus3.703550S. Juzek1.221111113LSep 2 · 11:30M. Rus3.10911661M. Adamus1.3011711113LSep 2 · 10:20S. Juzek1.221111123M. Rus3.7068100WSep 2 · 08:45M. Rus2.7541111113W. Buczynski1.38115871LSep 2 · 07:10M. Rus3.75611112112M. Adamus1.22119911133WSep 2 · 06:20B. Madej1.93117115102M. Rus1.75911711123LAug 25 · 17:05M. Rus2.7067121362P. Kurek1.4011111011113
Upcoming Matches
R. Gajda2 of 3 neutral
M. Rus
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.