TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054592
Played Sep 1Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116119––––
Stefan Yakimenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeStefan Yakimenko to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Stefan Yakimenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Stefan Yakimenko at 67.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 4–5 Stefan Yakimenko Vladyslav Stukalov has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:15What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Yakimenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1233 vs Yakimenko 1374
Yakimenko
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 60% vs Yakimenko 40%
Stukalov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 30% vs Yakimenko 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -2 · Yakimenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Yakimenko) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yakimenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 2.63 / Yakimenko 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Yakimenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13054592
Stukalov2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 101 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 68
Yakimenko1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 53 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it79% 37 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeStukalov4wins
AwayYakimenko5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderYakimenko leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov80%4 of 5
AwayYakimenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov5Yakimenko4n = 9Stukalov took 5 of 9
S2Stukalov4Yakimenko5n = 9Yakimenko took 5 of 9
S3Stukalov3Yakimenko6n = 9Yakimenko took 6 of 9
S4Stukalov4Yakimenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Stukalov2Yakimenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricStukalovYakimenkoS − YBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.940.3−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovYakimenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 808 vs 391 / 79550.3%49.2%406 / 808 vs 391 / 795Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YakimenkoStukalov 2.63/Yakimenko 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Yakimenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stukalov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WNov 18 · 14:10V. Stukalov—111151113S. Yakimenko—63111142
LOct 12 · 17:20V. Stukalov—6101171S. Yakimenko—11129113
WOct 9 · 08:20V. Stukalov—111196113S. Yakimenko—56111162
LOct 2 · 07:20V. Stukalov—1311141192S. Yakimenko—158168113
LSep 29 · 06:20V. Stukalov—8670S. Yakimenko—1111113
LSep 28 · 17:20V. Stukalov—11371192S. Yakimenko—811117113
WSep 21 · 09:35V. Stukalov—11113113S. Yakimenko—891191
LJan 26 · 11:05V. Stukalov—7512101S. Yakimenko—111110123
WJan 6 · 08:30V. Stukalov—11611113S. Yakimenko—311481
V. Stukalov10
WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113LSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740WSep 3 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.8311512113S. Semenets1.839111061WSep 3 · 07:35V. Korniichuk1.3671111882V. Stukalov3.00119611113
S. Yakimenko10
WSep 4 · 18:30S. Yakimenko1.671111113D. Khavanskyi2.105780WSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123LSep 4 · 15:30S. Yakimenko1.8311611552M. Khalenko1.83711911113LSep 4 · 14:30Y. Korotin3.50911811113S. Yakimenko1.2811911772LSep 4 · 13:00S. Yakimenko1.73711511122S. Semenets2.00115119143LSep 1 · 12:05S. Yakimenko1.737490S. Semenets2.001111113WSep 1 · 08:05O. Miklukha3.001171112102S. Yakimenko1.36511614123LSep 1 · 07:05S. Yakimenko1.50115991D. Khavanskyi2.5041111113WSep 1 · 06:05V. Korniichuk2.75117127102S. Yakimenko1.408111011123LJul 16 · 12:20S. Yakimenko2.009420A. Kurtenko1.731111113
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