TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054630
Played Sep 1Finished
Stefan Yakimenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114511911911––
Denys Khavanskyi
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:17 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeStefan Yakimenko to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingStefan Yakimenko above · Denys Khavanskyi below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Stefan Yakimenko at 66.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Stefan Yakimenko 14–12 Denys Khavanskyi Denys Khavanskyi has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:17What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Yakimenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Yakimenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yakimenko 1337 vs Khavanskyi 1280
Yakimenko
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yakimenko 20% vs Khavanskyi 80%
Khavanskyi
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yakimenko 10% vs Khavanskyi 60%
Khavanskyi
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yakimenko +1 · Khavanskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Yakimenko) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khavanskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYakimenko 1.50 / Khavanskyi 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Yakimenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13054630
Yakimenko1.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 55 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Khavanskyi2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 20 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back21% 5 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYakimenko5wins
AwayKhavanskyi5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYakimenko75%3 of 4
AwayKhavanskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yakimenko4Khavanskyi6n = 10Khavanskyi took 6 of 10
S2Yakimenko7Khavanskyi3n = 10Yakimenko took 7 of 10
S3Yakimenko7Khavanskyi3n = 10Yakimenko took 7 of 10
S4Yakimenko3Khavanskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricYakimenkoKhavanskyiY − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.133.7+1.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYakimenkoKhavanskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 795 vs 152 / 29749.2%51.2%391 / 795 vs 152 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.335.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YakimenkoYakimenko 1.50/Khavanskyi 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Yakimenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khavanskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 07:05S. Yakimenko—115991D. Khavanskyi—41111113
WMay 10 · 18:20S. Yakimenko—1111113D. Khavanskyi—4750
WMay 6 · 21:20S. Yakimenko—81111113D. Khavanskyi—116781
WMay 3 · 19:20S. Yakimenko—81111113D. Khavanskyi—113851
LApr 29 · 21:20S. Yakimenko—76121132D. Khavanskyi—1111109113
WApr 22 · 19:20S. Yakimenko—1111113D. Khavanskyi—9540
WApr 20 · 05:50S. Yakimenko—1213113D. Khavanskyi—101190
LApr 15 · 16:20S. Yakimenko—911741D. Khavanskyi—11911113
LApr 13 · 11:20S. Yakimenko—9770D. Khavanskyi—1111113
LApr 8 · 20:50S. Yakimenko—41112852D. Khavanskyi—1171011113
S. Yakimenko10
WSep 4 · 18:30S. Yakimenko1.671111113D. Khavanskyi2.105780WSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123LSep 4 · 15:30S. Yakimenko1.8311611552M. Khalenko1.83711911113LSep 4 · 14:30Y. Korotin3.50911811113S. Yakimenko1.2811911772LSep 4 · 13:00S. Yakimenko1.73711511122S. Semenets2.00115119143LSep 1 · 12:05S. Yakimenko1.737490S. Semenets2.001111113LSep 1 · 10:05V. Stukalov2.631111113S. Yakimenko1.448690WSep 1 · 08:05O. Miklukha3.001171112102S. Yakimenko1.36511614123WSep 1 · 06:05V. Korniichuk2.75117127102S. Yakimenko1.408111011123LJul 16 · 12:20S. Yakimenko2.009420A. Kurtenko1.731111113
D. Khavanskyi10
LSep 4 · 18:30S. Yakimenko1.671111113D. Khavanskyi2.105780LSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin2.253980D. Khavanskyi1.571111113LSep 4 · 14:00S. Semenets2.259111111113D. Khavanskyi1.5711135882LSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591LSep 3 · 11:05D. Khavanskyi2.00871141V. Korniichuk1.7311114113WSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740LSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113WSep 3 · 06:35D. Khavanskyi1.671111113S. Semenets2.109980LSep 3 · 05:05D. Khavanskyi1.446260M. Khalenko2.631111113
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