TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037688
Played Aug 29Finished
Andrii Melchenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911911––––
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:02 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeAndrii Melchenko to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Melchenko above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Andrii Melchenko at 60.1%
58 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Melchenko 5–1 Yaroslav Kovshun Yaroslav Kovshun has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:02What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Melchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Melchenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melchenko 1498 vs Kovshun 1515
Kovshun
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melchenko 0% vs Kovshun 20%
Kovshun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melchenko 40% vs Kovshun 20%
Melchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melchenko -5 · Kovshun -2
Melchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Melchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelchenko 1.73 / Kovshun 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Melchenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037688
Melchenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 7 of 13
Kovshun2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 40 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMelchenko5wins
AwayKovshun1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderMelchenko leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelchenko100%3 of 3
AwayKovshun33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melchenko3Kovshun3n = 6split evenly
S2Melchenko4Kovshun2n = 6Melchenko took 4 of 6
S3Melchenko5Kovshun1n = 6Melchenko took 5 of 6
S4Melchenko4Kovshun0n = 4Melchenko took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMelchenkoKovshunM − KBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match42.035.8+6.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelchenkoKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 45 vs 347 / 64748.9%53.6%22 / 45 vs 347 / 647Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelchenkoMelchenko 1.73/Kovshun 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Melchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 12 · 08:05A. Melchenko—7111011123Y. Kovshun—118125102
WOct 4 · 10:50A. Melchenko—11817113Y. Kovshun—3111591
WMay 3 · 15:10A. Melchenko—61116113Y. Kovshun—1191491
LApr 12 · 10:40A. Melchenko—58111182Y. Kovshun—111178113
WApr 5 · 17:10A. Melchenko—1111113Y. Kovshun—5580
WMar 29 · 16:10A. Melchenko—1211113Y. Kovshun—10750
A. Melchenko10
WAug 29 · 12:05I. Efimenko1.3391040A. Melchenko3.251112113LAug 29 · 08:35A. Troyan1.83111111113A. Melchenko1.83871391LAug 29 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.5011116113A. Melchenko2.50871191LAug 29 · 05:35A. Kotiash1.8311118113A. Melchenko1.83791191LAug 8 · 10:08A. Melchenko1.65811461A. Troyan2.1011511113LAug 8 · 08:35Y. Volkov1.801111123A. Melchenko1.9146100LAug 8 · 07:35A. Melchenko1.61811101222A. Lobanov2.201191210113WAug 8 · 06:35A. Troyan2.00106111262A. Melchenko1.731211510113WAug 8 · 05:35A. Melchenko1.67611144123O. Volynets2.101171211102WApr 26 · 12:50B. Zaika2.38148991A. Melchenko1.53121111113
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Kovshun3.00891111133R. Sopivnyk1.36111188112
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