TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12379003
Played Aug 8Finished
Andrey Troyan
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10126111151210611
Andrii Melchenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Melchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Andrii Melchenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 94 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Andrii Melchenko at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 2–2 Andrii Melchenko Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:12What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Melchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Troyan 1571 vs Melchenko 1538
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Troyan 40% vs Melchenko 100%
Melchenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Troyan 70% vs Melchenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Troyan -3 · Melchenko +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melchenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 2.00 / Melchenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Melchenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12379003
Troyan2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 59 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 78
Melchenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 7 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTroyan2wins
AwayMelchenko2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyann = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMelchenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan1Melchenko3n = 4Melchenko took 3 of 4
S2Troyan2Melchenko2n = 4split evenly
S3Troyan3Melchenko1n = 4Troyan took 3 of 4
S4Troyan3Melchenko1n = 4Troyan took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTroyanMelchenkoT − MBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match38.839.2−0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanMelchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 973 vs 21 / 4547.1%46.7%458 / 973 vs 21 / 45Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelchenkoTroyan 2.00/Melchenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Melchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 8 · 10:08A. Troyan—11511113A. Melchenko—811461
LAug 8 · 06:35A. Troyan—106111262A. Melchenko—1211510113
WMar 28 · 12:05A. Troyan—91212123A. Melchenko—111010101
LFeb 2 · 10:30A. Troyan—511741A. Melchenko—11511113
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870WSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892LSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110
A. Melchenko10
WAug 29 · 12:05I. Efimenko1.3391040A. Melchenko3.251112113LAug 29 · 10:35A. Melchenko1.737990Y. Kovshun2.001111113LAug 29 · 08:35A. Troyan1.83111111113A. Melchenko1.83871391LAug 29 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.5011116113A. Melchenko2.50871191LAug 29 · 05:35A. Kotiash1.8311118113A. Melchenko1.83791191LAug 8 · 10:08A. Melchenko1.65811461A. Troyan2.1011511113LAug 8 · 08:35Y. Volkov1.801111123A. Melchenko1.9146100LAug 8 · 07:35A. Melchenko1.61811101222A. Lobanov2.201191210113WAug 8 · 05:35A. Melchenko1.67611144123O. Volynets2.101171211102WApr 26 · 12:50B. Zaika2.38148991A. Melchenko1.53121111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Troyan
A. Melchenko
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.