TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037607
Played Aug 29Finished
Andrey Troyan
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181171113119––
Andrii Melchenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Andrii Melchenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 81 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Andrey Troyan at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 2–2 Andrii Melchenko Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:47What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Melchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Troyan 1598 vs Melchenko 1519
Troyan
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Troyan 60% vs Melchenko 0%
Troyan
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Troyan 60% vs Melchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Troyan +2 · Melchenko -5
Melchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Troyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 1.83 / Melchenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Troyan)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13037607
Troyan1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Melchenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTroyan2wins
AwayMelchenko2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyann = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMelchenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan1Melchenko3n = 4Melchenko took 3 of 4
S2Troyan2Melchenko2n = 4split evenly
S3Troyan3Melchenko1n = 4Troyan took 3 of 4
S4Troyan3Melchenko1n = 4Troyan took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTroyanMelchenkoT − MBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match38.839.2−0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanMelchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime460 / 975 vs 21 / 4247.2%50%460 / 975 vs 21 / 42Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanTroyan 1.83/Melchenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 8 · 10:08A. Troyan—11511113A. Melchenko—811461
LAug 8 · 06:35A. Troyan—106111262A. Melchenko—1211510113
WMar 28 · 12:05A. Troyan—91212123A. Melchenko—111010101
LFeb 2 · 10:30A. Troyan—511741A. Melchenko—11511113
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870WSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892LSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110
A. Melchenko10
WAug 29 · 12:05I. Efimenko1.3391040A. Melchenko3.251112113LAug 29 · 10:35A. Melchenko1.737990Y. Kovshun2.001111113LAug 29 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.5011116113A. Melchenko2.50871191LAug 29 · 05:35A. Kotiash1.8311118113A. Melchenko1.83791191LAug 8 · 10:08A. Melchenko1.65811461A. Troyan2.1011511113LAug 8 · 08:35Y. Volkov1.801111123A. Melchenko1.9146100LAug 8 · 07:35A. Melchenko1.61811101222A. Lobanov2.201191210113WAug 8 · 06:35A. Troyan2.00106111262A. Melchenko1.731211510113WAug 8 · 05:35A. Melchenko1.67611144123O. Volynets2.101171211102WApr 26 · 12:50B. Zaika2.38148991A. Melchenko1.53121111113
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