TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378969
Played Aug 8Finished
Andrii Melchenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81111910121210211
Arsenii Lobanov
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Melchenko to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Melchenko above · Arsenii Lobanov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 96 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Andrii Melchenko at 58.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Melchenko 4–4 Arsenii Lobanov Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:12What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Melchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melchenko 1538 vs Lobanov 1661
Lobanov
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melchenko 100% vs Lobanov 60%
Melchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melchenko 70% vs Lobanov 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melchenko +5 · Lobanov +2
Melchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Melchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobanov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelchenko 1.61 / Lobanov 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Melchenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12378969
Melchenko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 7 of 13
Lobanov2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog57% won 8 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMelchenko4wins
AwayLobanov4wins
6 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 6 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelchenko50%2 of 4
AwayLobanov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melchenko4Lobanov4n = 8split evenly
S2Melchenko7Lobanov1n = 8Melchenko took 7 of 8
S3Melchenko4Lobanov4n = 8split evenly
S4Melchenko3Lobanov4n = 7Lobanov took 4 of 7
S5Melchenko2Lobanov4n = 6Lobanov took 4 of 6
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away450%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMelchenkoLobanovM − LBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match45.844.2+1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelchenkoLobanovBasisWin rate · lifetime21 / 45 vs 64 / 12246.7%52.5%21 / 45 vs 64 / 122Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelchenkoMelchenko 1.61/Lobanov 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Melchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lobanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 8 · 07:35A. Melchenko—811101222A. Lobanov—1191210113
WJul 5 · 10:40A. Melchenko—8111110103A. Lobanov—11661292
LMay 24 · 17:10A. Melchenko—1011111162A. Lobanov—121366113
WMay 18 · 06:35A. Melchenko—1113113A. Lobanov—71130
LMay 10 · 11:10A. Melchenko—13118852A. Lobanov—1181111113
WMay 3 · 17:10A. Melchenko—111711113A. Lobanov—1315751
WFeb 16 · 07:30A. Melchenko—1111911113A. Lobanov—87111392
LFeb 9 · 06:00A. Melchenko—11116492A. Lobanov—781111113
A. Melchenko10
WAug 29 · 12:05I. Efimenko1.3391040A. Melchenko3.251112113LAug 29 · 10:35A. Melchenko1.737990Y. Kovshun2.001111113LAug 29 · 08:35A. Troyan1.83111111113A. Melchenko1.83871391LAug 29 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.5011116113A. Melchenko2.50871191LAug 29 · 05:35A. Kotiash1.8311118113A. Melchenko1.83791191LAug 8 · 10:08A. Melchenko1.65811461A. Troyan2.1011511113LAug 8 · 08:35Y. Volkov1.801111123A. Melchenko1.9146100WAug 8 · 06:35A. Troyan2.00106111262A. Melchenko1.731211510113WAug 8 · 05:35A. Melchenko1.67611144123O. Volynets2.101171211102WApr 26 · 12:50B. Zaika2.38148991A. Melchenko1.53121111113
A. Lobanov10
LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113LAug 23 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko2.75101211113A. Lobanov1.401210741LAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102WAug 20 · 09:30A. Lobanov1.40127211113A. Troyan2.75101111932LAug 20 · 08:30A. Lobanov1.50111116592Y. Volkov2.50691811113WAug 20 · 07:00A. Lobanov1.571113113A. Kotiash2.2551170LAug 20 · 05:00A. Lobanov1.8339100Y. Holoborodko1.831111123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.