TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037468
Played Aug 29Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117119811119––
Andrii Melchenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Melchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Andrii Melchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Andrii Melchenko at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:32What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Melchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1552 vs Melchenko 1538
Kotiash
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 40% vs Melchenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 50% vs Melchenko 70%
Melchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -1 · Melchenko -3
Melchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotiash) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 1.83 / Melchenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kotiash)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13037468
Kotiash1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Melchenko1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashMelchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 441 vs 21 / 4047.9%52.5%211 / 441 vs 21 / 40Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotiashKotiash 1.83/Melchenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kotiash · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kotiash won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
A. Kotiash10
LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.10631211153A. Troyan1.671111107132WSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572
A. Melchenko10
WAug 29 · 12:05I. Efimenko1.3391040A. Melchenko3.251112113LAug 29 · 10:35A. Melchenko1.737990Y. Kovshun2.001111113LAug 29 · 08:35A. Troyan1.83111111113A. Melchenko1.83871391LAug 29 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.5011116113A. Melchenko2.50871191LAug 8 · 10:08A. Melchenko1.65811461A. Troyan2.1011511113LAug 8 · 08:35Y. Volkov1.801111123A. Melchenko1.9146100LAug 8 · 07:35A. Melchenko1.61811101222A. Lobanov2.201191210113WAug 8 · 06:35A. Troyan2.00106111262A. Melchenko1.731211510113WAug 8 · 05:35A. Melchenko1.67611144123O. Volynets2.101171211102WApr 26 · 12:50B. Zaika2.38148991A. Melchenko1.53121111113
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