TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037639
Played Aug 29Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111151012911––
Oleksandr Zhurba
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:42 and never touched — 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhurba to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Oleksandr Zhurba below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhurba at 85.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 27–117 Oleksandr Zhurba Dmytro Neborak has won 27 of their 144 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:42What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Zhurba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-117 in 144
Zhurba
Correct
gap of 90 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1701 vs Zhurba 1902
Zhurba
Correct
both rated, 201 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 60% vs Zhurba 100%
Zhurba
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 50% vs Zhurba 80%
Zhurba
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +2 · Zhurba +5
Zhurba
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Zhurba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhurba form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 4.50 / Zhurba 1.17
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Zhurba)+6.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037639
Neborak4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 131
Zhurba1.17
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 177 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it98% 109 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it87% 139 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak2wins
AwayZhurba8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZhurba leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak66.7%2 of 3
AwayZhurba100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak3Zhurba7n = 10Zhurba took 7 of 10
S2Neborak5Zhurba5n = 10split evenly
S3Neborak1Zhurba9n = 10Zhurba took 9 of 10
S4Neborak2Zhurba4n = 6Zhurba took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakZhurbaN − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.237.7−7.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakZhurbaBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 841 vs 482 / 74235.3%65%297 / 841 vs 482 / 742Avg sets wonper match1.72.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhurbaNeborak 4.50/Zhurba 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Zhurba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zhurba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 13:00D. Neborak—711561O. Zhurba—11911113
WAug 16 · 09:00D. Neborak—11115113O. Zhurba—771171
LAug 16 · 05:30D. Neborak—45100O. Zhurba—1111123
LAug 15 · 16:30D. Neborak—119771O. Zhurba—91111113
LAug 15 · 13:00D. Neborak—91111482O. Zhurba—119611113
LAug 2 · 08:00D. Neborak—1013491O. Zhurba—121111113
WAug 2 · 07:00D. Neborak—11117113O. Zhurba—861181
LAug 1 · 17:00D. Neborak—11770O. Zhurba—1311113
LAug 1 · 12:00D. Neborak—8460O. Zhurba—1111113
LJun 27 · 06:20D. Neborak—7760O. Zhurba—1111113
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
O. Zhurba10
WAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380WAug 30 · 09:00O. Zhurba1.1791111143D. Neborak4.501177121LAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko3.50811118113O. Zhurba1.2811571182WAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113S. Hohenko3.506680WAug 30 · 05:30D. Neborak4.507650O. Zhurba1.171111113WAug 30 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.256560O. Zhurba1.331111113WAug 29 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.257990O. Zhurba1.331111113WAug 29 · 15:00S. Hohenko3.40711111122O. Zhurba1.30111367113WAug 29 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.3011411103S. Hohenko3.40911331WAug 29 · 13:00O. Zhurba1.1711911113D. Neborak4.50711561
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