TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037522
Played Aug 29Finished
Oleksandr Zhurba
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911115116––
Dmytro Neborak
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:02 and never touched — 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhurba to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhurba above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Zhurba at 85.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhurba 117–27 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 27 of their 144 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Zhurba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
117-27 in 144
Zhurba
Correct
gap of 90 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhurba 1928 vs Neborak 1720
Zhurba
Correct
both rated, 208 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhurba 60% vs Neborak 20%
Zhurba
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhurba 70% vs Neborak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhurba +2 · Neborak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Zhurba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhurba form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhurba 1.17 / Neborak 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Zhurba)+6.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037522
Zhurba1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 177 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it98% 109 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it87% 139 of 159
Neborak4.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhurba8wins
AwayNeborak2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZhurba leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhurba100%7 of 7
AwayNeborak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhurba7Neborak3n = 10Zhurba took 7 of 10
S2Zhurba5Neborak5n = 10split evenly
S3Zhurba9Neborak1n = 10Zhurba took 9 of 10
S4Zhurba4Neborak2n = 6Zhurba took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhurbaNeborakZ − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.730.2+7.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhurbaNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime484 / 744 vs 298 / 84365.1%35.4%484 / 744 vs 298 / 843Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhurbaZhurba 1.17/Neborak 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Zhurba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zhurba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 13:00O. Zhurba—11911113D. Neborak—711561
LAug 16 · 09:00O. Zhurba—771171D. Neborak—11115113
WAug 16 · 05:30O. Zhurba—1111123D. Neborak—45100
WAug 15 · 16:30O. Zhurba—91111113D. Neborak—119771
WAug 15 · 13:00O. Zhurba—119611113D. Neborak—91111482
WAug 2 · 08:00O. Zhurba—121111113D. Neborak—1013491
LAug 2 · 07:00O. Zhurba—861181D. Neborak—11117113
WAug 1 · 17:00O. Zhurba—1311113D. Neborak—11770
WAug 1 · 12:00O. Zhurba—1111113D. Neborak—8460
WJun 27 · 06:20O. Zhurba—1111113D. Neborak—7760
O. Zhurba10
WAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380WAug 30 · 09:00O. Zhurba1.1791111143D. Neborak4.501177121LAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko3.50811118113O. Zhurba1.2811571182WAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113S. Hohenko3.506680WAug 30 · 05:30D. Neborak4.507650O. Zhurba1.171111113WAug 30 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.256560O. Zhurba1.331111113WAug 29 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.257990O. Zhurba1.331111113WAug 29 · 16:30D. Neborak4.506111091O. Zhurba1.1711512113WAug 29 · 15:00S. Hohenko3.40711111122O. Zhurba1.30111367113WAug 29 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.3011411103S. Hohenko3.40911331
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LAug 30 · 09:00O. Zhurba1.1791111143D. Neborak4.501177121LAug 30 · 05:30D. Neborak4.507650O. Zhurba1.171111113LAug 29 · 16:30D. Neborak4.506111091O. Zhurba1.1711512113
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