TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031439
Played Aug 28Finished
Matus Zelinka
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211611611––––
Lukas Heinzl
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 47 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 54.0%
47 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 26–24 Lukas Heinzl Lukas Heinzl has won 24 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:05What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Heinzl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-24 in 50
Zelinka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1709 vs Heinzl 1783
Heinzl
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 40% vs Heinzl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 50% vs Heinzl 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka +1 · Heinzl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 1.83 / Heinzl 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Heinzl)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13031439
Zelinka1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Heinzl1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelinka4wins
AwayHeinzl6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka60%3 of 5
AwayHeinzl80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka5Heinzl5n = 10split evenly
S2Zelinka6Heinzl4n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S3Zelinka5Heinzl5n = 10split evenly
S4Zelinka5Heinzl4n = 9Zelinka took 5 of 9
S5Zelinka0Heinzl4n = 4Heinzl took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelinkaHeinzlZ − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.141.2−3.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 372 vs 351 / 64152.4%54.8%195 / 372 vs 351 / 641Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlZelinka 1.83/Heinzl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 15:15M. Zelinka—2660L. Heinzl—1111113
WAug 24 · 08:18M. Zelinka—41311113L. Heinzl—1111851
LAug 24 · 07:15M. Zelinka—6711111L. Heinzl—11114133
WAug 8 · 09:45M. Zelinka—11128113L. Heinzl—5101181
LAug 7 · 14:45M. Zelinka—61111652L. Heinzl—119911113
LJul 29 · 06:15M. Zelinka—912101162L. Heinzl—1110124113
LMay 3 · 20:14M. Zelinka—11812682L. Heinzl—9111011113
WMay 3 · 19:15M. Zelinka—11117113L. Heinzl—891171
WApr 19 · 08:44M. Zelinka—11911113L. Heinzl—811971
LApr 19 · 06:45M. Zelinka—11115282L. Heinzl—891111113
M. Zelinka10
LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113WSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 30 · 08:28M. Zelinka1.73761181R. Pisa2.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:45V. Burylov1.801314111082M. Zelinka1.911512912113WAug 30 · 06:45R. Pisa2.00111011992M. Zelinka1.73612411113LAug 30 · 05:15T. Liska2.1011119113M. Zelinka1.67891181
L. Heinzl10
WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960WSep 2 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.30111179113O. Mezera3.4069111162
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