TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13030168
Played Aug 28Finished
Marek Holub
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11810126111210911
Jiri Holubec
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMarek Holub to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Jiri Holubec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 100 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Marek Holub at 57.8%
100 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 5–1 Jiri Holubec Jiri Holubec has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:14What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Holub
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1580 vs Holubec 1724
Holubec
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 80% vs Holubec 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 50% vs Holubec 80%
Holubec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +2 · Holubec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holubec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.73 / Holubec 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Holub)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13030168
Holub1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 36 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Holubec2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back30% 3 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHolub5wins
AwayHolubec1wins
3 of 6 to a deciderHolub leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%5 of 5
AwayHolubecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Holubec1n = 6Holub took 5 of 6
S2Holub4Holubec2n = 6Holub took 4 of 6
S3Holub3Holubec3n = 6split evenly
S4Holub3Holubec2n = 5Holub took 3 of 5
S5Holub2Holubec1n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricHolubHolubecHolub − HolubecBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match45.239.5+5.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubHolubecBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 294 vs 39 / 8146.9%48.2%138 / 294 vs 39 / 81Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.73/Holubec 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holubec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 14 · 16:00M. Holub—11811113J. Holubec—611781
WJul 13 · 17:30M. Holub—11111410133J. Holubec—781612112
WJul 13 · 16:00M. Holub—121110113J. Holubec—1081291
LApr 10 · 16:30M. Holub—811711102J. Holubec—118117123
WFeb 13 · 16:00M. Holub—1111133J. Holubec—56110
WJan 21 · 16:00M. Holub—116116113J. Holubec—61141192
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub1.83712691Z. Pagac1.83111011113WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172WSep 2 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.61911321M. Holub2.2011711113WSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412LSep 2 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.73111268113M. Holub2.00810111172LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub2.0012991182M. Chalupa1.731011117113WSep 1 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.73131151182M. Holub2.00159117113
J. Holubec10
LAug 28 · 09:30J. Holubec1.80111112101M. Holub1.8013714123WAug 28 · 07:00J. Simecek2.201510661J. Holubec1.61131211113WAug 28 · 06:30J. Holubec1.671111113D. Unzeitig2.106940LAug 24 · 17:30J. Holubec1.4411750T. Kypr2.601311113WAug 24 · 16:00J. Holubec1.73811119113D. Unzeitig2.0011481132WAug 24 · 15:30J. Simecek2.2012115842J. Holubec1.611091111113WAug 24 · 14:00J. Holubec1.5011811113T. Kypr2.50811881WAug 14 · 17:30T. Kypr1.915660J. Holubec1.801111113LAug 14 · 16:00M. Holub1.6111811113J. Holubec2.20611781WAug 14 · 15:00J. Simecek2.00691181J. Holubec1.7311118113
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