TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12481104
Played Aug 24Finished
Jiri Holubec
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811114118911113
Daniel Unzeitig
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:38 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Holubec to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Holubec above · Daniel Unzeitig below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 87 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Jiri Holubec at 59.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Holubec 5–3 Daniel Unzeitig Daniel Unzeitig has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holubec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Holubec
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holubec 1680 vs Unzeitig 1627
Holubec
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holubec 80% vs Unzeitig 20%
Holubec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holubec 70% vs Unzeitig 20%
Holubec
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holubec +3 · Unzeitig -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Holubec) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Unzeitig form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolubec 1.73 / Unzeitig 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Holubec)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12481104
Holubec1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 14 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Unzeitig2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 39 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHolubec5wins
AwayUnzeitig3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderHolubec leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolubec75%3 of 4
AwayUnzeitig50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holubec4Unzeitig4n = 8split evenly
S2Holubec4Unzeitig4n = 8split evenly
S3Holubec4Unzeitig4n = 8split evenly
S4Holubec2Unzeitig3n = 5Unzeitig took 3 of 5
S5Holubec3Unzeitig0n = 3Holubec took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricHolubecUnzeitigH − UBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.639.9+1.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubecUnzeitigBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 77 vs 129 / 27746.8%46.6%36 / 77 vs 129 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubecHolubec 1.73/Unzeitig 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Holubec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holubec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 13 · 15:00J. Holubec—2211113D. Unzeitig—20490
WMay 25 · 17:00J. Holubec—1011911113D. Unzeitig—12411992
WMay 25 · 15:00J. Holubec—1111123D. Unzeitig—78100
LApr 27 · 15:00J. Holubec—911681D. Unzeitig—11811113
WApr 26 · 16:58J. Holubec—361116113D. Unzeitig—111171492
WApr 26 · 14:30J. Holubec—1115117113D. Unzeitig—91771152
LApr 25 · 14:30J. Holubec—11710101D. Unzeitig—31112123
LMar 27 · 17:30J. Holubec—12980D. Unzeitig—1411113
J. Holubec10
LAug 28 · 09:30J. Holubec1.80111112101M. Holub1.8013714123WAug 28 · 08:00M. Holub1.73111061292J. Holubec2.008121110113WAug 28 · 07:00J. Simecek2.201510661J. Holubec1.61131211113WAug 28 · 06:30J. Holubec1.671111113D. Unzeitig2.106940LAug 24 · 17:30J. Holubec1.4411750T. Kypr2.601311113WAug 24 · 15:30J. Simecek2.2012115842J. Holubec1.611091111113WAug 24 · 14:00J. Holubec1.5011811113T. Kypr2.50811881WAug 14 · 17:30T. Kypr1.915660J. Holubec1.801111113LAug 14 · 16:00M. Holub1.6111811113J. Holubec2.20611781WAug 14 · 15:00J. Simecek2.00691181J. Holubec1.7311118113
D. Unzeitig10
LSep 3 · 16:58D. Unzeitig1.91121181342J. Simecek1.801421111113WSep 3 · 16:30J. Simecek1.80111013101D. Unzeitig1.9191215123LSep 3 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.837860M. Bereiter1.831111113WSep 3 · 14:30T. Kypr2.001129101D. Unzeitig1.7341111123WAug 28 · 09:00D. Unzeitig2.2511116113J. Simecek1.57811131WAug 28 · 08:59D. Unzeitig2.2511116113J. Simecek1.57811131WAug 28 · 08:30J. Simecek1.44611981D. Unzeitig2.6311811113LAug 28 · 07:30D. Unzeitig2.207980M. Holub1.611111113LAug 28 · 06:30J. Holubec1.671111113D. Unzeitig2.106940LAug 24 · 16:58J. Simecek1.571511113D. Unzeitig2.2513730
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