TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12424283
Played Aug 14Finished
Marek Holub
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116811117118––
Jiri Holubec
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:11 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeMarek Holub to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Jiri Holubec below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Marek Holub at 60.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 4–1 Jiri Holubec Jiri Holubec has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:11What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Holub
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1561 vs Holubec 1669
Holubec
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Holubec 60%
Holubec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 40% vs Holubec 60%
Holubec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -3 · Holubec +2
Holub
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holubec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.61 / Holubec 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Holub)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12424283
Holub1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 36 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Holubec2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 8 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHolub4wins
AwayHolubec1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderHolub leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%4 of 4
AwayHolubecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub4Holubec1n = 5Holub took 4 of 5
S2Holub4Holubec1n = 5Holub took 4 of 5
S3Holub2Holubec3n = 5Holubec took 3 of 5
S4Holub2Holubec2n = 4split evenly
S5Holub2Holubec1n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHolubHolubecHolub − HolubecBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match46.041.0+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubHolubecBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 270 vs 33 / 7347%45.2%127 / 270 vs 33 / 73Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.61/Holubec 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.7%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 13 · 17:30M. Holub—11111410133J. Holubec—781612112
WJul 13 · 16:00M. Holub—121110113J. Holubec—1081291
LApr 10 · 16:30M. Holub—811711102J. Holubec—118117123
WFeb 13 · 16:00M. Holub—1111133J. Holubec—56110
WJan 21 · 16:00M. Holub—116116113J. Holubec—61141192
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub1.83712691Z. Pagac1.83111011113WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172WSep 2 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.61911321M. Holub2.2011711113WSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412LSep 2 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.73111268113M. Holub2.00810111172LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub2.0012991182M. Chalupa1.731011117113WSep 1 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.73131151182M. Holub2.00159117113
J. Holubec10
LAug 28 · 09:30J. Holubec1.80111112101M. Holub1.8013714123WAug 28 · 08:00M. Holub1.73111061292J. Holubec2.008121110113WAug 28 · 07:00J. Simecek2.201510661J. Holubec1.61131211113WAug 28 · 06:30J. Holubec1.671111113D. Unzeitig2.106940LAug 24 · 17:30J. Holubec1.4411750T. Kypr2.601311113WAug 24 · 16:00J. Holubec1.73811119113D. Unzeitig2.0011481132WAug 24 · 15:30J. Simecek2.2012115842J. Holubec1.611091111113WAug 24 · 14:00J. Holubec1.5011811113T. Kypr2.50811881WAug 14 · 17:30T. Kypr1.915660J. Holubec1.801111113WAug 14 · 15:00J. Simecek2.00691181J. Holubec1.7311118113
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