TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13020639
Played Aug 26Finished
Kamil Smolka
Home
1.66
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119116911117––
Rafal Gajda
Away
2.05
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
119116911117––
H2H Kamil Smolka 21–17 Rafal Gajda Rafal Gajda has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:57What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Smolka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-17 in 38
Smolka
Correct
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smolka 1370 vs Gajda 1380
Gajda
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smolka 20% vs Gajda 60%
Gajda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smolka 20% vs Gajda 60%
Gajda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smolka -4 · Gajda +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Smolka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmolka 1.66 / Gajda 2.05
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Smolka)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13020639
Smolka1.66
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 69 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it68% 53 of 78
Gajda2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 137 of 302
Down 0–1, comes back29% 48 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmolka4wins
AwayGajda6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGajda leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmolka50%2 of 4
AwayGajda66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smolka4Gajda6n = 10Gajda took 6 of 10
S2Smolka5Gajda5n = 10split evenly
S3Smolka4Gajda6n = 10Gajda took 6 of 10
S4Smolka6Gajda2n = 8Smolka took 6 of 8
S5Smolka1Gajda4n = 5Gajda took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmolkaGajdaS − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.240.8−0.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmolkaGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 437 vs 385 / 74251.3%51.9%224 / 437 vs 385 / 742Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmolkaSmolka 1.66/Gajda 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Smolka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smolka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka—53111142R. Gajda—111174113
LAug 19 · 15:05K. Smolka—111179122R. Gajda—871111143
WAug 19 · 09:05K. Smolka—711711123R. Gajda—118118102
LAug 12 · 12:45K. Smolka—109110R. Gajda—1211133
WAug 12 · 10:20K. Smolka—61211113R. Gajda—1110861
WAug 5 · 16:40K. Smolka—111013113R. Gajda—4121171
WAug 5 · 10:40K. Smolka—11125113R. Gajda—6101161
LJul 29 · 15:05K. Smolka—99111162R. Gajda—111164113
LJul 29 · 09:05K. Smolka—69100R. Gajda—1111123
LJul 22 · 12:45K. Smolka—111151172R. Gajda—961113113
K. Smolka10
WAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113LAug 26 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.431161111113K. Smolka2.5541113662WAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152LAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091LAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka1.6053111142R. Gajda2.20111174113LAug 26 · 09:30K. Smolka2.458550R. Skotniczny1.491111113LAug 26 · 08:20K. Smolka1.9511991392K. Adamus1.754111111113WAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka1.70711128113S. Juzek1.95115101162WAug 26 · 05:30K. Smolka1.8051112143J. Pelka1.9011910121LAug 19 · 16:20K. Smolka2.856111191K. Adamus1.3511139113
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571WAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka1.6053111142R. Gajda2.20111174113
Upcoming Matches
K. Smolka
Nothing scheduled
R. Gajda2 of 3 neutral
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.