TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13021473
Played Aug 26Finished
Sebastian Juzek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511117811811––
Kamil Smolka
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:13 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeKamil Smolka to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
511117811811––
H2H Sebastian Juzek 34–44 Kamil Smolka Sebastian Juzek has won 34 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Smolka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-44 in 78
Smolka
Correct
gap of 10 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Juzek 1357 vs Smolka 1374
Smolka
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Juzek 60% vs Smolka 40%
Juzek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Juzek 40% vs Smolka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Juzek +2 · Smolka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Smolka) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smolka form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJuzek 2.25 / Smolka 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Smolka)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13021473
Juzek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 104 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back20% 36 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 110
Smolka1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 69 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it68% 53 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJuzek4wins
AwaySmolka6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmolka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJuzek40%2 of 5
AwaySmolka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Juzek5Smolka5n = 10split evenly
S2Juzek3Smolka7n = 10Smolka took 7 of 10
S3Juzek4Smolka6n = 10Smolka took 6 of 10
S4Juzek5Smolka4n = 9Juzek took 5 of 9
S5Juzek2Smolka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJuzekSmolkaJ − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.443.3−3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJuzekSmolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 770 vs 225 / 43940.7%51.3%313 / 770 vs 225 / 439Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmolkaJuzek 2.25/Smolka 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Smolka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smolka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 06:45S. Juzek—115101162K. Smolka—711128113
WAug 19 · 12:45S. Juzek—11114193K. Smolka—5611171
LAug 19 · 10:20S. Juzek—113125102K. Smolka—8111011123
LAug 12 · 16:20S. Juzek—711481K. Smolka—11511113
WAug 12 · 06:45S. Juzek—481115123K. Smolka—1111713102
WAug 5 · 14:20S. Juzek—881111123K. Smolka—111168102
WAug 5 · 06:20S. Juzek—11118143K. Smolka—6911121
LJul 29 · 14:20S. Juzek—126271K. Smolka—101111113
LJul 29 · 06:20S. Juzek—9121181K. Smolka—11147113
LJul 22 · 14:20S. Juzek—7980K. Smolka—1111113
S. Juzek10
LSep 2 · 16:20S. Juzek1.858560R. Gajda1.801111113WSep 2 · 15:05S. Juzek1.5551112113B. Madej2.301191081WSep 2 · 13:55S. Juzek2.1171311113M. Adamus1.621111941WSep 2 · 12:45M. Rus3.703550S. Juzek1.221111113LSep 2 · 11:55S. Juzek1.68591171W. Buczynski2.0111119113WSep 2 · 10:20S. Juzek1.221111123M. Rus3.7068100LSep 2 · 09:05S. Juzek1.3575120B. Madej2.851111143WSep 2 · 07:55S. Juzek1.8611113113M. Adamus1.83971171WSep 2 · 06:45R. Gajda2.1010460S. Juzek1.671211113LSep 2 · 05:55S. Juzek1.62281381W. Buczynski2.11111111113
K. Smolka10
LAug 26 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.431161111113K. Smolka2.5541113662WAug 26 · 14:45K. Smolka1.6611119113R. Gajda2.05961171WAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152LAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091LAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka1.6053111142R. Gajda2.20111174113LAug 26 · 09:30K. Smolka2.458550R. Skotniczny1.491111113LAug 26 · 08:20K. Smolka1.9511991392K. Adamus1.754111111113WAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka1.70711128113S. Juzek1.95115101162WAug 26 · 05:30K. Smolka1.8051112143J. Pelka1.9011910121LAug 19 · 16:20K. Smolka2.856111191K. Adamus1.3511139113
Upcoming Matches
S. Juzek2 of 3 neutral
K. Smolka
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.