TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13018773
Played Aug 26Finished
Kamil Smolka
Home
1.60
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511311117114411
Rafal Gajda
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
511311117114411
H2H Kamil Smolka 21–15 Rafal Gajda Rafal Gajda has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:36What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Smolka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-15 in 36
Smolka
Wrong
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smolka 1388 vs Gajda 1367
Smolka
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smolka 40% vs Gajda 60%
Gajda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smolka 40% vs Gajda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smolka -1 · Gajda -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Smolka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmolka 1.60 / Gajda 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Smolka)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13018773
Smolka1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 69 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it68% 53 of 78
Gajda2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 137 of 302
Down 0–1, comes back29% 48 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmolka5wins
AwayGajda5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmolka66.7%2 of 3
AwayGajda57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smolka3Gajda7n = 10Gajda took 7 of 10
S2Smolka6Gajda4n = 10Smolka took 6 of 10
S3Smolka4Gajda6n = 10Gajda took 6 of 10
S4Smolka5Gajda3n = 8Smolka took 5 of 8
S5Smolka2Gajda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmolkaGajdaS − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.040.00.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmolkaGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 433 vs 382 / 73851.5%51.8%223 / 433 vs 382 / 738Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmolkaSmolka 1.60/Gajda 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.3%
Smolka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 09:05K. Smolka—711711123R. Gajda—118118102
LAug 12 · 12:45K. Smolka—109110R. Gajda—1211133
WAug 12 · 10:20K. Smolka—61211113R. Gajda—1110861
WAug 5 · 16:40K. Smolka—111013113R. Gajda—4121171
WAug 5 · 10:40K. Smolka—11125113R. Gajda—6101161
LJul 29 · 15:05K. Smolka—99111162R. Gajda—111164113
LJul 29 · 09:05K. Smolka—69100R. Gajda—1111123
LJul 22 · 12:45K. Smolka—111151172R. Gajda—961113113
WJul 22 · 10:20K. Smolka—711119113R. Gajda—11891182
LJul 15 · 15:30K. Smolka—911761R. Gajda—11711113
K. Smolka10
WAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113LAug 26 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.431161111113K. Smolka2.5541113662WAug 26 · 14:45K. Smolka1.6611119113R. Gajda2.05961171WAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152LAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091LAug 26 · 09:30K. Smolka2.458550R. Skotniczny1.491111113LAug 26 · 08:20K. Smolka1.9511991392K. Adamus1.754111111113WAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka1.70711128113S. Juzek1.95115101162WAug 26 · 05:30K. Smolka1.8051112143J. Pelka1.9011910121LAug 19 · 16:20K. Smolka2.856111191K. Adamus1.3511139113
R. Gajda10
WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113WSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:50O. Vincenec1.83691111143R. Gajda1.83111126122WSep 3 · 08:35R. Gajda2.20513811153M. Sikon1.611111119132WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda1.67111189113P. Kurek2.1079111162WSep 3 · 05:40R. Gajda1.83111311113O. Vincenec1.831311551WSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571LAug 26 · 14:45K. Smolka1.6611119113R. Gajda2.05961171
Upcoming Matches
K. Smolka
Nothing scheduled
R. Gajda2 of 3 neutral
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