TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13020637
Played Aug 26Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.43
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1146111113116116
Kamil Smolka
Away
2.55
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
90 points played in total.
Set by set
1146111113116116
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 13–7 Kamil Smolka Kamil Smolka has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:02What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (64%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-7 in 20
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1464 vs Smolka 1382
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 60% vs Smolka 40%
Skotniczny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 70% vs Smolka 40%
Skotniczny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +2 · Smolka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.43 / Smolka 2.55
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Skotniczny)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13020637
Skotniczny1.43
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 214 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it96% 113 of 118
Up 1–0, closes it85% 163 of 193
Smolka2.55
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 44 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back31% 15 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny8wins
AwaySmolka2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny100%6 of 6
AwaySmolka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny6Smolka4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S2Skotniczny7Smolka3n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S3Skotniczny6Smolka4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny5Smolka0n = 5Skotniczny took 5 of 5
S5Skotniczny2Smolka1n = 3Skotniczny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznySmolkaSkotniczny − SmolkaBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.230.3+7.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznySmolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime569 / 999 vs 225 / 43857%51.4%569 / 999 vs 225 / 438Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.43/Smolka 2.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 14 · 15:05R. Skotniczny—7890K. Smolka—1111113
WMay 14 · 09:05R. Skotniczny—1111113K. Smolka—3530
WMay 7 · 15:05R. Skotniczny—1111113K. Smolka—9640
WMay 7 · 09:05R. Skotniczny—511911153K. Smolka—117115132
WApr 29 · 13:55R. Skotniczny—121111113K. Smolka—147951
WApr 29 · 07:55R. Skotniczny—1113113K. Smolka—61140
WApr 8 · 12:20R. Skotniczny—115812113K. Smolka—911111082
WApr 8 · 08:20R. Skotniczny—1111113K. Smolka—3350
LMar 11 · 16:30R. Skotniczny—97111152K. Smolka—111158113
WMar 11 · 10:30R. Skotniczny—11115113K. Smolka—481181
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181WSep 4 · 11:25R. Skotniczny1.731611113P. Kurek2.0014740WSep 4 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.90115941R. Skotniczny1.8091111113LSep 4 · 09:25R. Skotniczny2.20711126132J. Pruszkowski1.611151011153LSep 4 · 07:45R. Skotniczny1.91712100Z. Sobkow1.801114123
K. Smolka10
WAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113WAug 26 · 14:45K. Smolka1.6611119113R. Gajda2.05961171WAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152LAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091LAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka1.6053111142R. Gajda2.20111174113LAug 26 · 09:30K. Smolka2.458550R. Skotniczny1.491111113LAug 26 · 08:20K. Smolka1.9511991392K. Adamus1.754111111113WAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka1.70711128113S. Juzek1.95115101162WAug 26 · 05:30K. Smolka1.8051112143J. Pelka1.9011910121LAug 19 · 16:20K. Smolka2.856111191K. Adamus1.3511139113
Upcoming Matches
R. Skotniczny1 of 4 neutral
K. Smolka
Nothing scheduled
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