TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13017221
Played Aug 26Finished
Kamil Smolka
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1149119111311911
Kacper Adamus
Away
1.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:33 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
1149119111311911
H2H Kamil Smolka 30–22 Kacper Adamus Kacper Adamus has won 22 of their 52 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-22 in 52
Smolka
Wrong
gap of 8 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smolka 1397 vs Adamus 1456
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smolka 40% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smolka 40% vs Adamus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smolka +2 · Adamus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smolka form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmolka 1.95 / Adamus 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamus)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13017221
Smolka1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 44 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back31% 15 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Adamus1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 341 of 566
Up 2–0, closes it97% 189 of 194
Up 1–0, closes it77% 272 of 353
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmolka5wins
AwayAdamus5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmolka60%3 of 5
AwayAdamus60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smolka5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Smolka6Adamus4n = 10Smolka took 6 of 10
S3Smolka5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S4Smolka3Adamus4n = 7Adamus took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmolkaAdamusS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.037.7+0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmolkaAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 433 vs 926 / 171951.5%53.9%223 / 433 vs 926 / 1719Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusSmolka 1.95/Adamus 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 08:20K. Smolka—11991392K. Adamus—4111111113
LAug 19 · 16:20K. Smolka—6111191K. Adamus—11139113
WAug 19 · 06:45K. Smolka—1111113K. Adamus—8980
WAug 12 · 15:05K. Smolka—81111113K. Adamus—118891
WAug 12 · 09:05K. Smolka—111198113K. Adamus—95111192
LAug 5 · 12:20K. Smolka—7890K. Adamus—1111113
LAug 5 · 08:20K. Smolka—117951K. Adamus—91111113
LJul 22 · 17:05K. Smolka—811871K. Adamus—11911113
WJul 22 · 08:45K. Smolka—1512113K. Adamus—131060
WJul 15 · 17:05K. Smolka—71111113K. Adamus—119851
K. Smolka10
WAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113LAug 26 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.431161111113K. Smolka2.5541113662WAug 26 · 14:45K. Smolka1.6611119113R. Gajda2.05961171WAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152LAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091LAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka1.6053111142R. Gajda2.20111174113LAug 26 · 09:30K. Smolka2.458550R. Skotniczny1.491111113WAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka1.70711128113S. Juzek1.95115101162WAug 26 · 05:30K. Smolka1.8051112143J. Pelka1.9011910121LAug 19 · 16:20K. Smolka2.856111191K. Adamus1.3511139113
K. Adamus10
WSep 5 · 08:45K. Adamus1.4711119143W. Pytlas2.458611121WSep 5 · 07:10K. Adamus1.66118115113J. Jesiek2.1081191162LSep 5 · 06:00K. Adamus2.456850P. Zemla1.471111113WSep 5 · 04:25K. Adamus1.391111113R. Adach2.706740LSep 5 · 03:10K. Adamus1.3598111492O. Sokolowski2.801111712113WSep 4 · 02:00K. Hetnar1.5110101191K. Adamus2.3412129113LSep 4 · 01:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.5014812133K. Adamus1.45121110111LSep 4 · 24:25K. Adamus1.35981212102G. Jurowicz2.9511111010123WAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091WAug 19 · 16:20K. Smolka2.856111191K. Adamus1.3511139113
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