TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12460630
Played Aug 19Finished
Kamil Smolka
Home
2.85
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111113119911––
Kacper Adamus
Away
1.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:51 and never touched — 74.6% is still 74.6%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
74.6%
74.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
6111113119911––
H2H Kamil Smolka 30–20 Kacper Adamus Kacper Adamus has won 20 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:51What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (68%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-20 in 50
Smolka
Wrong
gap of 10 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smolka 1397 vs Adamus 1441
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smolka 20% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smolka 50% vs Adamus 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smolka -4 · Adamus +1
Smolka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (60%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmolka 2.85 / Adamus 1.35
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Adamus)-1.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12460630
Smolka2.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 43 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back32% 15 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Adamus1.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 332 of 554
Up 2–0, closes it97% 181 of 186
Up 1–0, closes it77% 265 of 345
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmolka7wins
AwayAdamus3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSmolka leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmolka80%4 of 5
AwayAdamus40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smolka5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Smolka8Adamus2n = 10Smolka took 8 of 10
S3Smolka6Adamus4n = 10Smolka took 6 of 10
S4Smolka3Adamus3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmolkaAdamusS − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.533.2+3.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmolkaAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 429 vs 920 / 170851.5%53.9%221 / 429 vs 920 / 1708Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusSmolka 2.85/Adamus 1.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 06:45K. Smolka—1111113K. Adamus—8980
WAug 12 · 15:05K. Smolka—81111113K. Adamus—118891
WAug 12 · 09:05K. Smolka—111198113K. Adamus—95111192
LAug 5 · 12:20K. Smolka—7890K. Adamus—1111113
LAug 5 · 08:20K. Smolka—117951K. Adamus—91111113
LJul 22 · 17:05K. Smolka—811871K. Adamus—11911113
WJul 22 · 08:45K. Smolka—1512113K. Adamus—131060
WJul 15 · 17:05K. Smolka—71111113K. Adamus—119851
WJul 15 · 08:45K. Smolka—71111113K. Adamus—118651
WJul 8 · 11:30K. Smolka—1111113K. Adamus—2960
K. Smolka10
WAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113LAug 26 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.431161111113K. Smolka2.5541113662WAug 26 · 14:45K. Smolka1.6611119113R. Gajda2.05961171WAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152LAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091LAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka1.6053111142R. Gajda2.20111174113LAug 26 · 09:30K. Smolka2.458550R. Skotniczny1.491111113LAug 26 · 08:20K. Smolka1.9511991392K. Adamus1.754111111113WAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka1.70711128113S. Juzek1.95115101162WAug 26 · 05:30K. Smolka1.8051112143J. Pelka1.9011910121
K. Adamus10
WSep 5 · 08:45K. Adamus1.4711119143W. Pytlas2.458611121WSep 5 · 07:10K. Adamus1.66118115113J. Jesiek2.1081191162LSep 5 · 06:00K. Adamus2.456850P. Zemla1.471111113WSep 5 · 04:25K. Adamus1.391111113R. Adach2.706740LSep 5 · 03:10K. Adamus1.3598111492O. Sokolowski2.801111712113WSep 4 · 02:00K. Hetnar1.5110101191K. Adamus2.3412129113LSep 4 · 01:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.5014812133K. Adamus1.45121110111LSep 4 · 24:25K. Adamus1.35981212102G. Jurowicz2.9511111010123WAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091WAug 26 · 08:20K. Smolka1.9511991392K. Adamus1.754111111113
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