TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13019834
Played Aug 26Finished
Kacper Adamus
Home
1.98
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
91116141210119––
Kamil Smolka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
91116141210119––
H2H Kacper Adamus 23–30 Kamil Smolka Kacper Adamus has won 23 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:56What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (53%)
Smolka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-30 in 53
Smolka
Wrong
gap of 7 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1470 vs Smolka 1368
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Smolka 40%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Smolka 20%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Smolka -3
Smolka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smolka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smolka form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.98 / Smolka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Smolka)+0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13019834
Adamus1.98
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 120 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 65
Smolka1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 69 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it68% 53 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus6wins
AwaySmolka4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus75%3 of 4
AwaySmolka50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Smolka6n = 10Smolka took 6 of 10
S2Adamus5Smolka5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus6Smolka4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Adamus5Smolka2n = 7Adamus took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusSmolkaA − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.238.4+0.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusSmolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime925 / 1718 vs 223 / 43553.8%51.3%925 / 1718 vs 223 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmolkaAdamus 1.98/Smolka 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Smolka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus—91612113K. Smolka—11141091
WAug 26 · 08:20K. Adamus—4111111113K. Smolka—11991392
WAug 19 · 16:20K. Adamus—11139113K. Smolka—6111191
LAug 19 · 06:45K. Adamus—8980K. Smolka—1111113
LAug 12 · 15:05K. Adamus—118891K. Smolka—81111113
LAug 12 · 09:05K. Adamus—95111192K. Smolka—111198113
WAug 5 · 12:20K. Adamus—1111113K. Smolka—7890
WAug 5 · 08:20K. Adamus—91111113K. Smolka—117951
WJul 22 · 17:05K. Adamus—11911113K. Smolka—811871
LJul 22 · 08:45K. Adamus—131060K. Smolka—1512113
K. Adamus10
WSep 5 · 08:45K. Adamus1.4711119143W. Pytlas2.458611121WSep 5 · 07:10K. Adamus1.66118115113J. Jesiek2.1081191162LSep 5 · 06:00K. Adamus2.456850P. Zemla1.471111113WSep 5 · 04:25K. Adamus1.391111113R. Adach2.706740LSep 5 · 03:10K. Adamus1.3598111492O. Sokolowski2.801111712113WSep 4 · 02:00K. Hetnar1.5110101191K. Adamus2.3412129113LSep 4 · 01:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.5014812133K. Adamus1.45121110111LSep 4 · 24:25K. Adamus1.35981212102G. Jurowicz2.9511111010123LSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Lebek2.0511113113K. Adamus1.66961181
K. Smolka10
WAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113LAug 26 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.431161111113K. Smolka2.5541113662WAug 26 · 14:45K. Smolka1.6611119113R. Gajda2.05961171WAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152LAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka1.6053111142R. Gajda2.20111174113LAug 26 · 09:30K. Smolka2.458550R. Skotniczny1.491111113LAug 26 · 08:20K. Smolka1.9511991392K. Adamus1.754111111113WAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka1.70711128113S. Juzek1.95115101162WAug 26 · 05:30K. Smolka1.8051112143J. Pelka1.9011910121LAug 19 · 16:20K. Smolka2.856111191K. Adamus1.3511139113
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