TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13014609
Played Aug 26Finished
Kamil Smolka
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
51111912101412––
Jerzy Pelka
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:08 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeJerzy Pelka to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
51111912101412––
H2H Kamil Smolka 7–12 Jerzy Pelka Kamil Smolka has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:08What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smolka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Pelka
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smolka 1387 vs Pelka 1367
Smolka
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smolka 0% vs Pelka 80%
Pelka
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smolka 40% vs Pelka 60%
Pelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smolka -5 · Pelka +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smolka) · live re-read · sealed at 31% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmolka 1.80 / Pelka 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Smolka)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13014609
Smolka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 69 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it68% 53 of 78
Pelka1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 84 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmolka3wins
AwayPelka7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPelka leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmolka50%3 of 6
AwayPelka100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smolka6Pelka4n = 10Smolka took 6 of 10
S2Smolka4Pelka6n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S3Smolka8Pelka2n = 10Smolka took 8 of 10
S4Smolka1Pelka6n = 7Pelka took 6 of 7
S5Smolka1Pelka5n = 6Pelka took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmolkaPelkaS − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.0−1.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmolkaPelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 430 vs 432 / 93251.4%46.4%221 / 430 vs 432 / 932Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmolkaSmolka 1.80/Pelka 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Smolka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smolka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 13:30K. Smolka—133117112J. Pelka—1111611133
LAug 5 · 07:30K. Smolka—11711752J. Pelka—811711113
LJun 18 · 13:55K. Smolka—118116102J. Pelka—711611123
WJun 18 · 07:55K. Smolka—111116113J. Pelka—65111172
LMay 21 · 11:55K. Smolka—691191J. Pelka—11115113
LMay 21 · 05:55K. Smolka—136111272J. Pelka—1511910113
WMar 18 · 17:40K. Smolka—1111113J. Pelka—8760
LMar 18 · 11:40K. Smolka—9830J. Pelka—1111113
WFeb 25 · 16:30K. Smolka—1111113J. Pelka—4760
LFeb 25 · 10:30K. Smolka—51111952J. Pelka—116911113
K. Smolka10
WAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113LAug 26 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.431161111113K. Smolka2.5541113662WAug 26 · 14:45K. Smolka1.6611119113R. Gajda2.05961171WAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152LAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091LAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka1.6053111142R. Gajda2.20111174113LAug 26 · 09:30K. Smolka2.458550R. Skotniczny1.491111113LAug 26 · 08:20K. Smolka1.9511991392K. Adamus1.754111111113WAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka1.70711128113S. Juzek1.95115101162LAug 19 · 16:20K. Smolka2.856111191K. Adamus1.3511139113
J. Pelka10
LAug 31 · 16:20J. Pelka2.755640G. Wichowski1.401111113WAug 31 · 15:05J. Pelka1.851111113P. Mecik1.853850LAug 31 · 13:55J. Pelka2.001224101M. Baron1.71101111123LAug 31 · 12:45O. Jadach1.46851111113J. Pelka2.5011116692WAug 31 · 11:55J. Pelka1.60911129113W. Buczynski2.15115101152LAug 31 · 10:20J. Pelka2.509850O. Jadach1.441111113LAug 31 · 09:05J. Pelka1.831511812142P. Mecik1.861751110163LAug 31 · 07:55J. Pelka1.95561171M. Baron1.7511119113WAug 31 · 06:45G. Wichowski1.35511781J. Pelka2.9511411113LAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152
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