TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13050909
Played Aug 31Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511611119711––
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJerzy Pelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
511611119711––
H2H Jerzy Pelka 18–22 Mariusz Baron Jerzy Pelka has won 18 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 05:23What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Baron
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-22 in 40
Baron
Correct
gap of 4 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1361 vs Baron 1320
Pelka
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 60% vs Baron 40%
Pelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 50% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka +1 · Baron -3
Baron
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baron) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 1.95 / Baron 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baron)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13050909
Pelka1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog45% won 86 of 192
Down 0–1, comes back17% 16 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Baron1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 222 of 386
Up 2–0, closes it83% 107 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it71% 162 of 229
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka4wins
AwayBaron6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka40%2 of 5
AwayBaron60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S2Pelka3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S3Pelka4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Pelka3Baron4n = 7Baron took 4 of 7
S5Pelka3Baron2n = 5Pelka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaBaronP − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.340.6−1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 916 vs 870 / 179846.3%48.4%424 / 916 vs 870 / 1798Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaronPelka 1.95/Baron 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 11:55J. Pelka—1111113M. Baron—7880
LAug 4 · 05:55J. Pelka—114691M. Baron—51111113
LJul 14 · 13:10J. Pelka—117115102M. Baron—811911123
WJul 14 · 05:30J. Pelka—411811113M. Baron—11711562
WMar 5 · 12:55J. Pelka—1181110113M. Baron—41161292
LMar 5 · 06:55J. Pelka—8880M. Baron—1111113
LDec 25 · 24:10J. Pelka—11912101M. Baron—51114123
LDec 17 · 23:50J. Pelka—8840M. Baron—1111113
WNov 21 · 16:55J. Pelka—1071511123M. Baron—1211134102
LNov 21 · 10:55J. Pelka—6111012102M. Baron—1191210123
J. Pelka10
LAug 31 · 16:20J. Pelka2.755640G. Wichowski1.401111113WAug 31 · 15:05J. Pelka1.851111113P. Mecik1.853850LAug 31 · 13:55J. Pelka2.001224101M. Baron1.71101111123LAug 31 · 12:45O. Jadach1.46851111113J. Pelka2.5011116692WAug 31 · 11:55J. Pelka1.60911129113W. Buczynski2.15115101152LAug 31 · 10:20J. Pelka2.509850O. Jadach1.441111113LAug 31 · 09:05J. Pelka1.831511812142P. Mecik1.861751110163WAug 31 · 06:45G. Wichowski1.35511781J. Pelka2.9511411113LAug 31 · 05:55J. Pelka1.59791291W. Buczynski2.17111110113WAug 26 · 16:50K. Adamus1.651511111192J. Pelka2.10171398113
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113WAug 31 · 13:55J. Pelka2.001224101M. Baron1.71101111123
Upcoming Matches
J. Pelka
Nothing scheduled
M. Baron1 of 1 neutral
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