TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015918
Played Aug 26Finished
Oleh Miklukha
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111113119611––
Oleh Ponomarenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Miklukha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingOleh Miklukha above · Oleh Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 81 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Oleh Miklukha at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Miklukha 38–65 Oleh Ponomarenko Oleh Miklukha has won 38 of their 103 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:32What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Miklukha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-65 in 103
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 27 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miklukha 1189 vs Ponomarenko 1069
Miklukha
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miklukha 60% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Miklukha
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miklukha 60% vs Ponomarenko 30%
Miklukha
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Miklukha -1 · Ponomarenko -4
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Miklukha) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiklukha 1.73 / Ponomarenko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Miklukha)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13015918
Miklukha1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 41 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Ponomarenko2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 50 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiklukha5wins
AwayPonomarenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiklukha60%3 of 5
AwayPonomarenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miklukha5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Miklukha7Ponomarenko3n = 10Miklukha took 7 of 10
S3Miklukha6Ponomarenko4n = 10Miklukha took 6 of 10
S4Miklukha4Ponomarenko3n = 7Miklukha took 4 of 7
S5Miklukha1Ponomarenko4n = 5Ponomarenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiklukhaPonomarenkoM − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.237.8+3.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiklukhaPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 466 vs 308 / 65347%47.2%219 / 466 vs 308 / 653Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiklukhaMiklukha 1.73/Ponomarenko 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.5%
Miklukha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 09:35O. Miklukha—13119123O. Ponomarenko—11611101
LJul 28 · 07:30O. Miklukha—101111952O. Ponomarenko—123611113
WJul 22 · 15:00O. Miklukha—9101113113O. Ponomarenko—111281162
WJul 15 · 18:00O. Miklukha—1111113O. Ponomarenko—9660
WJun 30 · 07:00O. Miklukha—91311113O. Ponomarenko—1111751
LJun 24 · 15:40O. Miklukha—118117102O. Ponomarenko—511511123
WJun 15 · 10:30O. Miklukha—1111113O. Ponomarenko—9860
LJun 2 · 09:00O. Miklukha—11119872O. Ponomarenko—851111113
LMay 29 · 11:05O. Miklukha—21180O. Ponomarenko—1113113
LMay 25 · 05:05O. Miklukha—81151182O. Ponomarenko—117116113
O. Miklukha10
LSep 1 · 11:05O. Miklukha2.50119751V. Stukalov1.5081111113LSep 1 · 09:35O. Miklukha2.63711111062V. Korniichuk1.44117912113LSep 1 · 08:05O. Miklukha3.001171112102S. Yakimenko1.36511614123WSep 1 · 06:35O. Miklukha2.101212113S. Semenets1.67101050WSep 1 · 05:05O. Miklukha2.501111113D. Khavanskyi1.508960LAug 26 · 10:30O. Miklukha2.00771371O. Stopin1.73111111113LAug 26 · 09:00O. Miklukha2.20981391V. Stukalov1.61111111113LAug 26 · 06:00O. Miklukha2.2041111662S. Semenets1.61119611113WAug 26 · 04:30O. Miklukha2.6313118113D. Khavanskyi1.441191191WAug 25 · 11:05O. Miklukha1.331311113K. Vernudin3.2511980
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212
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