TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13008607
Played Aug 25Finished
Pavlo Ishchyk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111210811511––
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavlo Ishchyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavlo Ishchyk above · Yaroslav Stepanchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 74 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Pavlo Ishchyk at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Ishchyk 4–4 Yaroslav Stepanchuk Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:45What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ishchyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ishchyk 1390 vs Stepanchuk 1469
Stepanchuk
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ishchyk 20% vs Stepanchuk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ishchyk 30% vs Stepanchuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ishchyk -4 · Stepanchuk -2
Ishchyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stepanchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepanchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIshchyk 1.80 / Stepanchuk 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stepanchuk)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13008607
Ishchyk1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 23 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it64% 16 of 25
Stepanchuk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 42 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeIshchyk4wins
AwayStepanchuk4wins
1 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIshchyk60%3 of 5
AwayStepanchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ishchyk5Stepanchuk3n = 8Ishchyk took 5 of 8
S2Ishchyk4Stepanchuk4n = 8split evenly
S3Ishchyk5Stepanchuk3n = 8Ishchyk took 5 of 8
S4Ishchyk2Stepanchuk3n = 5Stepanchuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricIshchykStepanchukI − SBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match35.032.8+2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIshchykStepanchukBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 147 vs 296 / 62335.4%47.5%52 / 147 vs 296 / 623Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukIshchyk 1.80/Stepanchuk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJul 29 · 17:55P. Ishchyk—117551Y. Stepanchuk—81111113
WJun 29 · 18:25P. Ishchyk—71111113Y. Stepanchuk—119961
WJun 23 · 13:25P. Ishchyk—1111113Y. Stepanchuk—6260
WJun 22 · 19:25P. Ishchyk—11911113Y. Stepanchuk—211491
WJun 4 · 14:25P. Ishchyk—1111123Y. Stepanchuk—79100
LMay 11 · 19:25P. Ishchyk—81111101Y. Stepanchuk—11613123
LMay 5 · 15:55P. Ishchyk—10570Y. Stepanchuk—1211113
LMar 30 · 17:25P. Ishchyk—11611942Y. Stepanchuk—711411113
P. Ishchyk10
LAug 25 · 17:55O. Melashenko1.531111113P. Ishchyk2.387960LAug 25 · 16:55P. Ishchyk3.0051580K. Hrynenko1.361117113LAug 25 · 15:55S. Pitsyk1.611111113P. Ishchyk2.209780LAug 25 · 14:25P. Ishchyk1.571011117102S. Khandetskyi2.25126211123WAug 24 · 19:25S. Khandetskyi1.9110670P. Ishchyk1.801211113LAug 24 · 18:25P. Ishchyk2.10117116112H. Kulishov1.67911611133WAug 24 · 17:25P. Ishchyk1.80961211123A. Yakovenko1.911111108102LAug 24 · 15:55P. Ishchyk1.7311780V. Kobets2.001311113LAug 24 · 13:55P. Ishchyk2.637370K. Hrynenko1.441111113WAug 5 · 19:55P. Ishchyk3.25114811113S. Skachenko1.3381111872
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk5.503660K. Hrynenko1.131111113WSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LSep 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk3.251110381D. Derevynskyi1.3391211113
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