TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482398
Played Aug 24Finished
Pavlo Ishchyk
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113711811––––
Vitalii Kobets
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavlo Ishchyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavlo Ishchyk above · Vitalii Kobets below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 61 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Pavlo Ishchyk at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Ishchyk 11–6 Vitalii Kobets Vitalii Kobets has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ishchyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Ishchyk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ishchyk 1424 vs Kobets 1513
Kobets
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ishchyk 40% vs Kobets 20%
Ishchyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ishchyk 40% vs Kobets 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ishchyk -1 · Kobets -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Ishchyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kobets form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIshchyk 1.73 / Kobets 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Ishchyk)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482398
Ishchyk1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 21 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it63% 15 of 24
Kobets2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 78 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back15% 7 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIshchyk7wins
AwayKobets3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderIshchyk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIshchyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayKobets50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ishchyk6Kobets4n = 10Ishchyk took 6 of 10
S2Ishchyk7Kobets3n = 10Ishchyk took 7 of 10
S3Ishchyk9Kobets1n = 10Ishchyk took 9 of 10
S4Ishchyk3Kobets3n = 6split evenly
S5Ishchyk2Kobets3n = 5Kobets took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIshchykKobetsI − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.036.6+4.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIshchykKobetsBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 139 vs 458 / 89036%51.5%50 / 139 vs 458 / 890Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IshchykIshchyk 1.73/Kobets 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Ishchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kobets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 15:55P. Ishchyk—2111113123V. Kobets—114615102
WJul 6 · 15:55P. Ishchyk—1211113V. Kobets—10940
WJun 29 · 15:55P. Ishchyk—1111113V. Kobets—9790
WJun 23 · 16:25P. Ishchyk—1111123V. Kobets—67100
WJun 22 · 15:55P. Ishchyk—11111110113V. Kobets—13721252
LJun 18 · 18:25P. Ishchyk—13381152V. Kobets—1111115113
WJun 10 · 18:25P. Ishchyk—13915113V. Kobets—11111381
WJun 8 · 18:25P. Ishchyk—1111113V. Kobets—9680
LJun 1 · 14:25P. Ishchyk—81111172V. Kobets—111197113
LMay 25 · 15:55P. Ishchyk—101111782V. Kobets—126611113
P. Ishchyk10
LAug 25 · 19:55P. Ishchyk1.80612851Y. Stepanchuk1.91111011113LAug 25 · 17:55O. Melashenko1.531111113P. Ishchyk2.387960LAug 25 · 16:55P. Ishchyk3.0051580K. Hrynenko1.361117113LAug 25 · 15:55S. Pitsyk1.611111113P. Ishchyk2.209780LAug 25 · 14:25P. Ishchyk1.571011117102S. Khandetskyi2.25126211123WAug 24 · 19:25S. Khandetskyi1.9110670P. Ishchyk1.801211113LAug 24 · 18:25P. Ishchyk2.10117116112H. Kulishov1.67911611133WAug 24 · 17:25P. Ishchyk1.80961211123A. Yakovenko1.911111108102LAug 24 · 13:55P. Ishchyk2.637370K. Hrynenko1.441111113WAug 5 · 19:55P. Ishchyk3.25114811113S. Skachenko1.3381111872
V. Kobets10
LAug 31 · 19:55V. Kobets4.332490K. Hrynenko1.201111113WAug 31 · 17:55Y. Sokoltsov2.20711491V. Kobets1.6111911113LAug 31 · 16:55V. Kobets1.731010111112S. Khandetskyi2.00121239113WAug 31 · 15:55D. Rehotun1.674770V. Kobets2.101111113LAug 31 · 14:25V. Kobets2.00471151O. Melashenko1.7311116113WAug 28 · 03:05V. Kobets1.30811137113A. Yakovenko3.40113111172LAug 28 · 01:35V. Kobets1.449118101A. Peretiatko2.6311411123LAug 28 · 24:05V. Kobets2.386890H. Kulishov1.531111113WAug 27 · 22:35V. Kobets1.4091111113M. Skliar2.75115471LAug 27 · 21:05V. Kobets1.73961141D. Kim2.0011116113
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