TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13006774
Played Aug 26Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111311118911711
Volodymyr Panasenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Panasenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Volodymyr Panasenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 98 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Volodymyr Panasenko at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 0–2 Volodymyr Panasenko Dmytro Derevynskyi has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Panasenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1561 vs Panasenko 1592
Panasenko
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 40% vs Panasenko 80%
Panasenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 40% vs Panasenko 60%
Panasenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi +1 · Panasenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Panasenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Panasenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 2.38 / Panasenko 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Panasenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13006774
Derevynskyi2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 38 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back28% 14 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Panasenko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 18 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi0wins
AwayPanasenko2wins
2 of 2 to a deciderPanasenko leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away2
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiPanasenkoD − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match46.549.5−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiPanasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime466 / 847 vs 19 / 3555%54.3%466 / 847 vs 19 / 35Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PanasenkoDerevynskyi 2.38/Panasenko 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Panasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Panasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 26 · 04:05D. Derevynskyi—61311972V. Panasenko—1111811113
LJul 15 · 16:55D. Derevynskyi—611911102V. Panasenko—118115123
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113
V. Panasenko10
LSep 2 · 03:25V. Khamurda3.4011114113V. Panasenko1.30771161WSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470WSep 1 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.4061217113R. Gnoevoy2.7511101591WSep 1 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.301111135113T. Ponomarenko3.4055151162WAug 29 · 03:35V. Panasenko1.571111113D. Derevynskyi2.257940WAug 29 · 01:35Y. Krol2.007470V. Panasenko1.731111113WAug 29 · 24:35V. Panasenko1.501219711113O. Gomilko2.50102111972LAug 28 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50811611113V. Panasenko1.5011611662WAug 28 · 22:05V. Panasenko1.571311511113V. Lobas2.2515811852
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