TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467103
Played Aug 21Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11810121311119––
Serhii Bului
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 80.9% is still 80.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
80.9%
80.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Serhii Bului below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 85 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 80.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 5–0 Serhii Bului Serhii Bului has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:20What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Balabei
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 2005 vs Bului 1661
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 344 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 60% vs Bului 0%
Balabei
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 50% vs Bului 30%
Balabei
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei +1 · Bului -5
Bului
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Balabei) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bului form (0%) is below what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.17 / Bului 4.50
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Balabei)+10.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467103
Balabei1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 206 of 282
Up 2–0, closes it97% 98 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it89% 142 of 160
Bului4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog14% won 10 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back8% 5 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBalabei5wins
AwayBului0wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBalabei leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei100%5 of 5
AwayBuluin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei5Bului0n = 5Balabei took 5 of 5
S2Balabei4Bului1n = 5Balabei took 4 of 5
S3Balabei2Bului3n = 5Bului took 3 of 5
S4Balabei3Bului0n = 3Balabei took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBalabeiBuluiBalabei − BuluiBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match40.230.6+9.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiBuluiBasisWin rate · lifetime493 / 986 vs 92 / 19550%47.2%493 / 986 vs 92 / 195Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiBalabei 1.17/Bului 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.4%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJun 12 · 15:00S. Balabei—111110113S. Bului—691261
WJun 5 · 15:00S. Balabei—139911113S. Bului—111111592
WMay 30 · 14:00S. Balabei—11115123S. Bului—4811101
WJan 24 · 16:00S. Balabei—1111113S. Bului—6950
WJan 17 · 08:00S. Balabei—1111113S. Bului—9740
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei1.5011113123D. Kryshtal2.506711101
S. Bului10
WAug 22 · 10:39S. Bului1.57127117113M. Levytskii2.25101131162WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tsys3.003540S. Bului1.361111113WAug 22 · 07:30O. Torianyk2.00611111192S. Bului1.73115813113WAug 22 · 06:00M. Levytskii2.3811113832S. Bului1.53791111113LAug 22 · 05:00P. Kolesnik3.401111123S. Bului1.3097100LAug 21 · 16:00S. Bului4.3363111272R. Horokh1.201111910113LAug 21 · 14:00I. Shyndel1.251112123S. Bului3.75710100LAug 21 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.2881111113S. Bului3.50113691LAug 16 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko1.3311114113S. Bului3.25741161LAug 16 · 07:30S. Bului3.00613101162V. Komar1.361111126113
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