TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049366
Played Aug 31Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511116911117911
Serhii Kushnirenko
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Serhii Kushnirenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 91 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 78.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 92–23 Serhii Kushnirenko Serhii Kushnirenko has won 23 of their 115 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:46What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Balabei
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
92-23 in 115
Balabei
Wrong
gap of 69 in 115, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 1966 vs Kushnirenko 1833
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 40% vs Kushnirenko 0%
Balabei
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 40% vs Kushnirenko 20%
Balabei
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei -2 · Kushnirenko -5
Kushnirenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kushnirenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.30 / Kushnirenko 3.40
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Balabei)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13049366
Balabei1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 212 of 291
Up 2–0, closes it97% 103 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it88% 149 of 169
Kushnirenko3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 119 of 368
Down 0–1, comes back18% 41 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei7wins
AwayKushnirenko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei85.7%6 of 7
AwayKushnirenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei7Kushnirenko3n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S2Balabei7Kushnirenko3n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Balabei7Kushnirenko3n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S4Balabei4Kushnirenko2n = 6Balabei took 4 of 6
S5Balabei1Kushnirenko2n = 3Kushnirenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiKushnirenkoB − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.733.3+5.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiKushnirenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 1010 vs 314 / 76450%41.1%505 / 1010 vs 314 / 764Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiBalabei 1.30/Kushnirenko 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.6%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kushnirenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 07:00S. Balabei—1111113S. Kushnirenko—9480
WAug 25 · 16:30S. Balabei—1111113S. Kushnirenko—9450
LAug 22 · 12:30S. Balabei—11117862S. Kushnirenko—87111193
WAug 20 · 08:30S. Balabei—1111113S. Kushnirenko—4890
WAug 18 · 13:30S. Balabei—11115113S. Kushnirenko—841171
WAug 15 · 17:04S. Balabei—781111113S. Kushnirenko—11119772
WAug 15 · 16:00S. Balabei—11121173S. Kushnirenko—814751
WAug 13 · 08:30S. Balabei—1111113S. Kushnirenko—7780
LAug 12 · 12:30S. Balabei—811101152S. Kushnirenko—118125113
LAug 6 · 10:30S. Balabei—1541291S. Kushnirenko—171110113
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei1.5011113123D. Kryshtal2.506711101LAug 28 · 16:00S. Balabei7.0061111232S. Ponomarenko1.08117611113
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131WSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572LSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880WSep 2 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.251110313113M. Levytskii3.75712111142WAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113WAug 31 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.617111091S. Kushnirenko2.2011812113LAug 31 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.759111091R. Horokh1.4011912113LAug 31 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko2.20101171192D. Yurkov1.61129119113LAug 26 · 10:35D. Kryshtal1.7311118113S. Kushnirenko2.00571191
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