TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031738
Played Aug 28Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
7.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611117116211311
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.08
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched — 85.7% is still 85.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
85.7%
85.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 79 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 85.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 11–182 Serhii Ponomarenko Serhii Balabei has won 11 of their 193 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:10What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-182 in 193
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 171 in 193, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 1986 vs Ponomarenko 1818
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 60% vs Ponomarenko 80%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 70% vs Ponomarenko 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei +1 · Ponomarenko +3
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (80%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 7.00 / Ponomarenko 1.08
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-0.9pp
Setka Cup · #13031738
Balabei7.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 61 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back19% 24 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Ponomarenko1.08
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite88% won 317 of 361
Up 2–0, closes it100% 209 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it95% 257 of 271
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei0wins
AwayPonomarenko10wins
Ponomarenko leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei0%0 of 3
AwayPonomarenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei3Ponomarenko7n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Balabei2Ponomarenko8n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S3Balabei1Ponomarenko9n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S4Balabei0Ponomarenko6n = 6Ponomarenko took 6 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiPonomarenkoB − PBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.338.7−12.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime502 / 1004 vs 778 / 86650%89.8%502 / 1004 vs 778 / 866Avg sets wonper match2.02.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoBalabei 7.00/Ponomarenko 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.7%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 29 · 15:00S. Balabei—6340S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LJul 28 · 07:00S. Balabei—117531S. Ponomarenko—91111113
LJul 24 · 07:00S. Balabei—711571S. Ponomarenko—11611113
LJul 23 · 14:30S. Balabei—111290S. Ponomarenko—1314113
LJul 22 · 10:28S. Balabei—115731S. Ponomarenko—91111113
LJul 22 · 06:00S. Balabei—1366111S. Ponomarenko—111111133
LJul 15 · 09:59S. Balabei—6890S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LJul 15 · 05:30S. Balabei—811461S. Ponomarenko—11411113
LJul 14 · 15:00S. Balabei—541241S. Ponomarenko—111110113
LJul 10 · 05:30S. Balabei—10760S. Ponomarenko—1211113
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei1.5011113123D. Kryshtal2.506711101
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113
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