TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037721
Played Aug 29Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161173111210––
Dmytro Kryshtal
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:03 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Dmytro Kryshtal below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 71 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 64.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 79–40 Dmytro Kryshtal Dmytro Kryshtal has won 40 of their 119 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
79-40 in 119
Balabei
Correct
gap of 39 in 119, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 1977 vs Kryshtal 1932
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 40% vs Kryshtal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 60% vs Kryshtal 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei -1 · Kryshtal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.50 / Kryshtal 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Balabei)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13037721
Balabei1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 212 of 291
Up 2–0, closes it97% 103 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it88% 149 of 169
Kryshtal2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 88 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back11% 21 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei6wins
AwayKryshtal4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei80%4 of 5
AwayKryshtal60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei5Kryshtal5n = 10split evenly
S2Balabei7Kryshtal3n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Balabei5Kryshtal5n = 10split evenly
S4Balabei3Kryshtal5n = 8Kryshtal took 5 of 8
S5Balabei3Kryshtal1n = 4Balabei took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiKryshtalB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.9−1.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiKryshtalBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 1009 vs 314 / 72350.1%43.4%505 / 1009 vs 314 / 723Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiBalabei 1.50/Kryshtal 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei—11113123D. Kryshtal—6711101
LAug 28 · 12:30S. Balabei—7114111D. Kryshtal—11211133
WAug 26 · 08:00S. Balabei—1111113D. Kryshtal—8790
LAug 25 · 13:30S. Balabei—118751D. Kryshtal—81111113
WAug 22 · 15:00S. Balabei—111493D. Kryshtal—51250
LAug 21 · 17:20S. Balabei—915291D. Kryshtal—111311113
WAug 21 · 13:30S. Balabei—114115113D. Kryshtal—91191182
WAug 20 · 09:30S. Balabei—911118113D. Kryshtal—11891182
LAug 18 · 15:00S. Balabei—51171142D. Kryshtal—119116113
WAug 15 · 14:30S. Balabei—97111173D. Kryshtal—11118752
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113LAug 28 · 16:00S. Balabei7.0061111232S. Ponomarenko1.08117611113
D. Kryshtal10
LSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760WSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131LSep 2 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.5312119882M. Levytskii2.381071111113LSep 2 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.25101190R. Horokh1.571213113LAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130WAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112LAug 31 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.617111091S. Kushnirenko2.2011812113WAug 31 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.108460LAug 31 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.509101181R. Horokh1.5011128113
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