TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049391
Played Aug 31Finished
Dmytro Kryshtal
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118101212107111311
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Kryshtal above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 105 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 64.5%
105 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Kryshtal 40–79 Serhii Balabei Dmytro Kryshtal has won 40 of their 119 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Balabei
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-79 in 119
Balabei
Wrong
gap of 39 in 119, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryshtal 1919 vs Balabei 1961
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryshtal 40% vs Balabei 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryshtal 40% vs Balabei 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryshtal -1 · Balabei +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryshtal 2.50 / Balabei 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Balabei)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13049391
Kryshtal2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog30% won 88 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back11% 21 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 131
Balabei1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 212 of 291
Up 2–0, closes it97% 103 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it88% 149 of 169
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryshtal4wins
AwayBalabei6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryshtal60%3 of 5
AwayBalabei80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryshtal5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S2Kryshtal3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Kryshtal5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S4Kryshtal5Balabei3n = 8Kryshtal took 5 of 8
S5Kryshtal1Balabei3n = 4Balabei took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryshtalBalabeiK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.937.8+1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryshtalBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime315 / 726 vs 506 / 101243.4%50%315 / 726 vs 506 / 1012Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiKryshtal 2.50/Balabei 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kryshtal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 06:00D. Kryshtal—6711101S. Balabei—11113123
WAug 28 · 12:30D. Kryshtal—11211133S. Balabei—7114111
LAug 26 · 08:00D. Kryshtal—8790S. Balabei—1111113
WAug 25 · 13:30D. Kryshtal—81111113S. Balabei—118751
LAug 22 · 15:00D. Kryshtal—51250S. Balabei—111493
WAug 21 · 17:20D. Kryshtal—111311113S. Balabei—915291
LAug 21 · 13:30D. Kryshtal—91191182S. Balabei—114115113
LAug 20 · 09:30D. Kryshtal—11891182S. Balabei—911118113
WAug 18 · 15:00D. Kryshtal—119116113S. Balabei—51171142
LAug 15 · 14:30D. Kryshtal—11118752S. Balabei—97111173
D. Kryshtal10
LSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760WSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131LSep 2 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.5312119882M. Levytskii2.381071111113LSep 2 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.25101190R. Horokh1.571213113LAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.617111091S. Kushnirenko2.2011812113WAug 31 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.108460LAug 31 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.509101181R. Horokh1.5011128113WAug 29 · 10:03D. Kryshtal2.501411911113R. Horokh1.5016811792
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei1.5011113123D. Kryshtal2.506711101LAug 28 · 16:00S. Balabei7.0061111232S. Ponomarenko1.08117611113
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