TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049562
Played Aug 31Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116117––––
Dmytro Yurkov
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Dmytro Yurkov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 67.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 125–126 Dmytro Yurkov Serhii Balabei has won 125 of their 251 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
125-126 in 251
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 1951 vs Yurkov 1864
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 40% vs Yurkov 60%
Yurkov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 40% vs Yurkov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei -3 · Yurkov -1
Balabei
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Balabei) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yurkov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.44 / Yurkov 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Balabei)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049562
Balabei1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 212 of 291
Up 2–0, closes it97% 103 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it88% 149 of 169
Yurkov2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 88 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back13% 19 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei9wins
AwayYurkov1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei100%9 of 9
AwayYurkovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei9Yurkov1n = 10Balabei took 9 of 10
S2Balabei5Yurkov5n = 10split evenly
S3Balabei7Yurkov3n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S4Balabei6Yurkov1n = 7Balabei took 6 of 7
S5Balabei2Yurkov1n = 3Balabei took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiYurkovB − YBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.433.0+7.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiYurkovBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 1011 vs 434 / 99450%43.7%505 / 1011 vs 434 / 994Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.634.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiBalabei 1.44/Yurkov 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 25 · 12:30S. Balabei—117115123D. Yurkov—611811102
WJul 23 · 17:13S. Balabei—116711143D. Yurkov—911113122
WJul 23 · 12:30S. Balabei—1111113D. Yurkov—5970
WJul 20 · 13:30S. Balabei—1112113D. Yurkov—91040
WJul 16 · 17:29S. Balabei—11119113D. Yurkov—781161
WJul 16 · 14:00S. Balabei—1111113D. Yurkov—9480
WJul 14 · 13:30S. Balabei—111110113D. Yurkov—731261
LJul 9 · 12:30S. Balabei—115111152D. Yurkov—131187113
WJul 7 · 14:00S. Balabei—11711113D. Yurkov—411831
WJul 1 · 12:30S. Balabei—11712113D. Yurkov—9111071
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei1.5011113123D. Kryshtal2.506711101LAug 28 · 16:00S. Balabei7.0061111232S. Ponomarenko1.08117611113
D. Yurkov10
LAug 31 · 16:00D. Yurkov2.2061160R. Horokh1.611113113LAug 31 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.108460WAug 31 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko2.20101171192D. Yurkov1.61129119113LAug 18 · 17:28D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.106860WAug 18 · 16:30D. Yurkov2.3851113113S. Balabei1.531161191WAug 18 · 15:30D. Yurkov1.5791211113S. Kushnirenko2.251110961WAug 18 · 14:00D. Yurkov2.10113711113D. Kryshtal1.6741111692LAug 18 · 13:00D. Yurkov2.25117951R. Horokh1.5791111113WAug 11 · 17:29D. Yurkov2.0011913123D. Kryshtal1.7391111101LAug 11 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.7391111113D. Yurkov2.00118781
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