TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451420
Played Aug 18Finished
Dmytro Yurkov
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119711911511––
Roman Horokh
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:37 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Yurkov above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 74 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Roman Horokh at 63.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Yurkov 145–215 Roman Horokh Dmytro Yurkov has won 145 of their 360 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:37What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
145-215 in 360
Horokh
Correct
gap of 70 in 360, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yurkov 1842 vs Horokh 1990
Horokh
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yurkov 40% vs Horokh 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yurkov 30% vs Horokh 50%
Horokh
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yurkov +1 · Horokh +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Horokh) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYurkov 2.25 / Horokh 1.57
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Horokh)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451420
Yurkov2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 97 of 284
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 100
Horokh1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 290 of 455
Up 2–0, closes it95% 155 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it80% 223 of 279
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYurkov4wins
AwayHorokh6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHorokh leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYurkov42.9%3 of 7
AwayHorokh66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yurkov7Horokh3n = 10Yurkov took 7 of 10
S2Yurkov5Horokh5n = 10split evenly
S3Yurkov6Horokh4n = 10Yurkov took 6 of 10
S4Yurkov1Horokh7n = 8Horokh took 7 of 8
S5Yurkov2Horokh3n = 5Horokh took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricYurkovHorokhY − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.841.1−1.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYurkovHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime450 / 1029 vs 700 / 125743.7%55.7%450 / 1029 vs 700 / 1257Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhYurkov 2.25/Horokh 1.57
Hit
What we said
66.9%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 20 · 14:30D. Yurkov—13810141R. Horokh—111112163
WJul 16 · 16:30D. Yurkov—1113113R. Horokh—51140
LJul 14 · 14:30D. Yurkov—911681R. Horokh—11811113
LJul 11 · 17:34D. Yurkov—15812862R. Horokh—13111011113
WJul 11 · 16:30D. Yurkov—511812113R. Horokh—116111052
WJul 9 · 14:30D. Yurkov—1111113R. Horokh—6670
LJul 7 · 16:00D. Yurkov—21011111R. Horokh—11128133
LJul 2 · 17:09D. Yurkov—112111132R. Horokh—811913113
LJul 2 · 16:00D. Yurkov—112136112R. Horokh—1111111133
WJul 1 · 14:30D. Yurkov—111143113R. Horokh—77111132
D. Yurkov10
LAug 31 · 16:00D. Yurkov2.2061160R. Horokh1.611113113LAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.108460WAug 31 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko2.20101171192D. Yurkov1.61129119113LAug 18 · 17:28D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.106860WAug 18 · 16:30D. Yurkov2.3851113113S. Balabei1.531161191WAug 18 · 15:30D. Yurkov1.5791211113S. Kushnirenko2.251110961WAug 18 · 14:00D. Yurkov2.10113711113D. Kryshtal1.6741111692WAug 11 · 17:29D. Yurkov2.0011913123D. Kryshtal1.7391111101LAug 11 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.7391111113D. Yurkov2.00118781
R. Horokh10
WSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760WSep 2 · 16:00M. Levytskii6.5079111152R. Horokh1.10111157113LSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572WSep 2 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.25101190R. Horokh1.571213113WSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113LAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113WAug 31 · 16:00D. Yurkov2.2061160R. Horokh1.611113113WAug 31 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.759111091R. Horokh1.4011912113WAug 31 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.509101181R. Horokh1.5011128113WAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113
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