TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451377
Played Aug 18Finished
Dmytro Yurkov
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111161311119––
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Yurkov above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 68.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Yurkov 126–125 Serhii Balabei Serhii Balabei has won 125 of their 251 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:20What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Balabei
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
126-125 in 251
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yurkov 1880 vs Balabei 2047
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yurkov 60% vs Balabei 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yurkov 40% vs Balabei 80%
Balabei
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yurkov +2 · Balabei -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yurkov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYurkov 2.38 / Balabei 1.53
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Balabei)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451377
Yurkov2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 97 of 284
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 100
Balabei1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite74% won 204 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it97% 97 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it89% 141 of 158
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYurkov1wins
AwayBalabei9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYurkovn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBalabei100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yurkov1Balabei9n = 10Balabei took 9 of 10
S2Yurkov5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S3Yurkov3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S4Yurkov1Balabei6n = 7Balabei took 6 of 7
S5Yurkov1Balabei2n = 3Balabei took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricYurkovBalabeiY − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.040.4−7.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYurkovBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime453 / 1033 vs 487 / 97543.9%50%453 / 1033 vs 487 / 975Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiYurkov 2.38/Balabei 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.8%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Yurkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 25 · 12:30D. Yurkov—611811102S. Balabei—117115123
LJul 23 · 17:13D. Yurkov—911113122S. Balabei—116711143
LJul 23 · 12:30D. Yurkov—5970S. Balabei—1111113
LJul 20 · 13:30D. Yurkov—91040S. Balabei—1112113
LJul 16 · 17:29D. Yurkov—781161S. Balabei—11119113
LJul 16 · 14:00D. Yurkov—9480S. Balabei—1111113
LJul 14 · 13:30D. Yurkov—731261S. Balabei—111110113
WJul 9 · 12:30D. Yurkov—131187113S. Balabei—115111152
LJul 7 · 14:00D. Yurkov—411831S. Balabei—11711113
LJul 1 · 12:30D. Yurkov—9111071S. Balabei—11712113
D. Yurkov10
LAug 31 · 16:00D. Yurkov2.2061160R. Horokh1.611113113LAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.108460WAug 31 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko2.20101171192D. Yurkov1.61129119113LAug 18 · 17:28D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.106860WAug 18 · 15:30D. Yurkov1.5791211113S. Kushnirenko2.251110961WAug 18 · 14:00D. Yurkov2.10113711113D. Kryshtal1.6741111692LAug 18 · 13:00D. Yurkov2.25117951R. Horokh1.5791111113WAug 11 · 17:29D. Yurkov2.0011913123D. Kryshtal1.7391111101LAug 11 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.7391111113D. Yurkov2.00118781
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei1.5011113123D. Kryshtal2.506711101
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