TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049658
Played Aug 31Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
51113151161210911
Roman Horokh
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 103 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Roman Horokh at 54.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 118–210 Roman Horokh Serhii Balabei has won 118 of their 328 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
118-210 in 328
Horokh
Correct
gap of 92 in 328, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 1977 vs Horokh 1971
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 60% vs Horokh 40%
Balabei
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 50% vs Horokh 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei -1 · Horokh -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horokh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 2.00 / Horokh 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Horokh)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049658
Balabei2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 62 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 68
Horokh1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 288 of 451
Up 2–0, closes it96% 155 of 162
Up 1–0, closes it80% 223 of 278
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei6wins
AwayHorokh4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei50%2 of 4
AwayHorokh33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei4Horokh6n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S2Balabei7Horokh3n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Balabei5Horokh5n = 10split evenly
S4Balabei4Horokh3n = 7Balabei took 4 of 7
S5Balabei3Horokh2n = 5Balabei took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiHorokhB − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.339.7+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 1009 vs 701 / 125350.1%56%505 / 1009 vs 701 / 1253Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhBalabei 2.00/Horokh 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 12:00S. Balabei—111610932R. Horokh—7141211113
WAug 20 · 07:00S. Balabei—1011116113R. Horokh—12831162
LAug 18 · 17:00S. Balabei—61160R. Horokh—1113113
LAug 18 · 12:00S. Balabei—114101282R. Horokh—5111210113
WAug 13 · 10:30S. Balabei—9101111113R. Horokh—11125952
WAug 13 · 07:00S. Balabei—1111113R. Horokh—7990
LAug 12 · 16:00S. Balabei—911571R. Horokh—11711113
WAug 11 · 16:59S. Balabei—1113511163R. Horokh—1311117142
WAug 11 · 16:00S. Balabei—1211113R. Horokh—10760
WAug 6 · 09:00S. Balabei—51311113R. Horokh—1111551
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei1.5011113123D. Kryshtal2.506711101LAug 28 · 16:00S. Balabei7.0061111232S. Ponomarenko1.08117611113
R. Horokh10
WSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760WSep 2 · 16:00M. Levytskii6.5079111152R. Horokh1.10111157113LSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572WSep 2 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.25101190R. Horokh1.571213113WSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113LAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113WAug 31 · 16:00D. Yurkov2.2061160R. Horokh1.611113113WAug 31 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.759111091R. Horokh1.4011912113WAug 31 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.509101181R. Horokh1.5011128113LAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771
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