TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037658
Played Aug 29Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116611117117––
Roman Horokh
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 70 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Roman Horokh at 54.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 118–210 Roman Horokh Serhii Balabei has won 118 of their 328 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Horokh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
118-210 in 328
Horokh
Wrong
gap of 92 in 328, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 1982 vs Horokh 2010
Horokh
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 40% vs Horokh 80%
Horokh
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 60% vs Horokh 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei -1 · Horokh +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horokh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 2.00 / Horokh 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Horokh)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13037658
Balabei2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 62 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 70
Horokh1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 291 of 453
Up 2–0, closes it96% 156 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it81% 225 of 279
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei6wins
AwayHorokh4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei50%2 of 4
AwayHorokh33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei4Horokh6n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S2Balabei7Horokh3n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Balabei5Horokh5n = 10split evenly
S4Balabei4Horokh3n = 7Balabei took 4 of 7
S5Balabei3Horokh2n = 5Balabei took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiHorokhB − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.339.7+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 1006 vs 709 / 126650%56%503 / 1006 vs 709 / 1266Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhBalabei 2.00/Horokh 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 12:00S. Balabei—111610932R. Horokh—7141211113
WAug 20 · 07:00S. Balabei—1011116113R. Horokh—12831162
LAug 18 · 17:00S. Balabei—61160R. Horokh—1113113
LAug 18 · 12:00S. Balabei—114101282R. Horokh—5111210113
WAug 13 · 10:30S. Balabei—9101111113R. Horokh—11125952
WAug 13 · 07:00S. Balabei—1111113R. Horokh—7990
LAug 12 · 16:00S. Balabei—911571R. Horokh—11711113
WAug 11 · 16:59S. Balabei—1113511163R. Horokh—1311117142
WAug 11 · 16:00S. Balabei—1211113R. Horokh—10760
WAug 6 · 09:00S. Balabei—51311113R. Horokh—1111551
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei1.5011113123D. Kryshtal2.506711101LAug 28 · 16:00S. Balabei7.0061111232S. Ponomarenko1.08117611113
R. Horokh10
WSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760WSep 2 · 16:00M. Levytskii6.5079111152R. Horokh1.10111157113LSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572WSep 2 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.25101190R. Horokh1.571213113WSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113LAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113WAug 31 · 16:00D. Yurkov2.2061160R. Horokh1.611113113WAug 31 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.759111091R. Horokh1.4011912113WAug 31 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.509101181R. Horokh1.5011128113WAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113
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