TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061135
Played Sep 2Finished
Serhii Kiilo
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118118––––
Serhii Kushnirenko
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kushnirenko to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Kiilo above · Serhii Kushnirenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Kushnirenko at 74.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kiilo 14–27 Serhii Kushnirenko Serhii Kiilo has won 14 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kushnirenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-27 in 41
Kushnirenko
Wrong
gap of 13 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kiilo 1748 vs Kushnirenko 1853
Kushnirenko
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kiilo 60% vs Kushnirenko 80%
Kushnirenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kiilo 40% vs Kushnirenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kiilo -1 · Kushnirenko +3
Kushnirenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Kushnirenko) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kiilo form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKiilo 3.25 / Kushnirenko 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Kushnirenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13061135
Kiilo3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back12% 15 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 82
Kushnirenko1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite81% won 52 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKiilo4wins
AwayKushnirenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKushnirenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKiilo80%4 of 5
AwayKushnirenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kiilo5Kushnirenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Kiilo6Kushnirenko4n = 10Kiilo took 6 of 10
S3Kiilo5Kushnirenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kiilo0Kushnirenko7n = 7Kushnirenko took 7 of 7
S5Kiilo2Kushnirenko1n = 3Kiilo took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKiiloKushnirenkoKiilo − KushnirenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.839.4−2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKiiloKushnirenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 368 vs 318 / 77026.4%41.3%97 / 368 vs 318 / 770Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.735.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KushnirenkoKiilo 3.25/Kushnirenko 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.1%
Kushnirenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kiilo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo—1211113S. Kushnirenko—10880
WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo—1181113113S. Kushnirenko—71171562
LAug 19 · 12:30S. Kiilo—712951S. Kushnirenko—111011113
LAug 3 · 14:30S. Kiilo—10111081S. Kushnirenko—12912113
LAug 1 · 15:30S. Kiilo—811741S. Kushnirenko—11911113
LJul 6 · 17:14S. Kiilo—21270S. Kushnirenko—1114113
WJul 6 · 14:30S. Kiilo—1113113S. Kushnirenko—71160
LJul 2 · 15:30S. Kiilo—8311111S. Kushnirenko—11118133
LJun 30 · 15:30S. Kiilo—11511572S. Kushnirenko—711511113
WJun 29 · 15:00S. Kiilo—1511211113S. Kushnirenko—137111312
S. Kiilo10
LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:00S. Kiilo1.611111113M. Levytskii2.208780LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo3.401181113113S. Kushnirenko1.3071171562LAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo5.0051080R. Horokh1.141112113WAug 19 · 15:00D. Kryshtal1.2271161152S. Kiilo4.00117114113WAug 19 · 14:00V. Komar1.281110961S. Kiilo3.5031211113LAug 19 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.33111011113S. Kiilo3.25712951LAug 11 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.251111113S. Kiilo3.754510
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131WSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572WSep 2 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.251110313113M. Levytskii3.75712111142WAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113WAug 31 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.617111091S. Kushnirenko2.2011812113LAug 31 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.759111091R. Horokh1.4011912113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo3.401181113113S. Kushnirenko1.3071171562WAug 19 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.33111011113S. Kiilo3.25712951
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