TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12457054
Played Aug 19Finished
Serhii Kushnirenko
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171012119115––
Serhii Kiilo
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 80.9% is still 80.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kushnirenko to win
80.9%
80.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kushnirenko above · Serhii Kiilo below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Serhii Kushnirenko at 80.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kushnirenko 26–12 Serhii Kiilo Serhii Kiilo has won 12 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kushnirenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-12 in 38
Kushnirenko
Correct
gap of 14 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kushnirenko 1870 vs Kiilo 1681
Kushnirenko
Correct
both rated, 189 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kushnirenko 40% vs Kiilo 20%
Kushnirenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kushnirenko 40% vs Kiilo 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kushnirenko -1 · Kiilo -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Kushnirenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kiilo form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKushnirenko 1.33 / Kiilo 3.25
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Kushnirenko)+10.0pp
Setka Cup · #12457054
Kushnirenko1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite80% won 57 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Kiilo3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog19% won 31 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back11% 14 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKushnirenko8wins
AwayKiilo2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKushnirenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKushnirenko100%6 of 6
AwayKiilo50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kushnirenko6Kiilo4n = 10Kushnirenko took 6 of 10
S2Kushnirenko5Kiilo5n = 10split evenly
S3Kushnirenko7Kiilo3n = 10Kushnirenko took 7 of 10
S4Kushnirenko7Kiilo0n = 7Kushnirenko took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKushnirenkoKiiloKushnirenko − KiiloBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.232.0+7.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKushnirenkoKiiloBasisWin rate · lifetime309 / 752 vs 103 / 38741.1%26.6%309 / 752 vs 103 / 387Avg sets wonper match1.81.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.634.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KushnirenkoKushnirenko 1.33/Kiilo 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.9%
Kushnirenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kushnirenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko—12912113S. Kiilo—10111081
WAug 1 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko—11911113S. Kiilo—811741
WJul 6 · 17:14S. Kushnirenko—1114113S. Kiilo—21270
LJul 6 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko—71160S. Kiilo—1113113
WJul 2 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko—11118133S. Kiilo—8311111
WJun 30 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko—711511113S. Kiilo—11511572
LJun 29 · 15:00S. Kushnirenko—137111312S. Kiilo—1511211113
WJun 14 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko—11511113S. Kiilo—511591
WJun 10 · 15:00S. Kushnirenko—1111113S. Kiilo—3500
WJun 8 · 15:00S. Kushnirenko—71211123S. Kiilo—11104101
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131WSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572LSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880WSep 2 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.251110313113M. Levytskii3.75712111142WAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113WAug 31 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.617111091S. Kushnirenko2.2011812113LAug 31 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.759111091R. Horokh1.4011912113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko2.20101171192D. Yurkov1.61129119113
S. Kiilo10
LSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:00S. Kiilo1.611111113M. Levytskii2.208780WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo3.401181113113S. Kushnirenko1.3071171562LAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo5.0051080R. Horokh1.141112113WAug 19 · 15:00D. Kryshtal1.2271161152S. Kiilo4.00117114113WAug 19 · 14:00V. Komar1.281110961S. Kiilo3.5031211113
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