TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12461243
Played Aug 19Finished
Serhii Kiilo
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1178111171315116
Serhii Kushnirenko
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingSerhii Kiilo above · Serhii Kushnirenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 100 set 5, 11-6
100 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kiilo 12–26 Serhii Kushnirenko Serhii Kiilo has won 12 of their 38 meetings.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Kushnirenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kushnirenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKiilo 3.40 / Kushnirenko 1.30
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Kushnirenko)+10.0pp
Setka Cup · #12461243
Kiilo3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog19% won 31 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back11% 14 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 84
Kushnirenko1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite80% won 57 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKiilo2wins
AwayKushnirenko8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKushnirenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKiilo50%2 of 4
AwayKushnirenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kiilo4Kushnirenko6n = 10Kushnirenko took 6 of 10
S2Kiilo5Kushnirenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kiilo3Kushnirenko7n = 10Kushnirenko took 7 of 10
S4Kiilo0Kushnirenko7n = 7Kushnirenko took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKiiloKushnirenkoKiilo − KushnirenkoBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.039.2−7.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKiiloKushnirenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 387 vs 311 / 75526.9%41.2%104 / 387 vs 311 / 755Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.635.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KushnirenkoKiilo 3.40/Kushnirenko 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
82.3%
Kushnirenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kiilo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 3 · 14:30S. Kiilo—10111081S. Kushnirenko—12912113
LAug 1 · 15:30S. Kiilo—811741S. Kushnirenko—11911113
LJul 6 · 17:14S. Kiilo—21270S. Kushnirenko—1114113
WJul 6 · 14:30S. Kiilo—1113113S. Kushnirenko—71160
LJul 2 · 15:30S. Kiilo—8311111S. Kushnirenko—11118133
LJun 30 · 15:30S. Kiilo—11511572S. Kushnirenko—711511113
WJun 29 · 15:00S. Kiilo—1511211113S. Kushnirenko—137111312
LJun 14 · 15:30S. Kiilo—511591S. Kushnirenko—11511113
LJun 10 · 15:00S. Kiilo—3500S. Kushnirenko—1111113
LJun 8 · 15:00S. Kiilo—11104101S. Kushnirenko—71211123
S. Kiilo10
LSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:00S. Kiilo1.611111113M. Levytskii2.208780WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113LAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo5.0051080R. Horokh1.141112113WAug 19 · 15:00D. Kryshtal1.2271161152S. Kiilo4.00117114113WAug 19 · 14:00V. Komar1.281110961S. Kiilo3.5031211113LAug 19 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.33111011113S. Kiilo3.25712951
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131WSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572LSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880WSep 2 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.251110313113M. Levytskii3.75712111142WAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113WAug 31 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.617111091S. Kushnirenko2.2011812113LAug 31 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.759111091R. Horokh1.4011912113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113WAug 19 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.33111011113S. Kiilo3.25712951
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