TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12457150
Played Aug 19Finished
Vadim Komar
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1131012911611––
Serhii Kiilo
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 83.3% is still 83.3%
Graded at full timeVadim Komar to win
83.3%
83.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVadim Komar above · Serhii Kiilo below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Vadim Komar at 83.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Komar 41–10 Serhii Kiilo Serhii Kiilo has won 10 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Komar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-10 in 51
Komar
Wrong
gap of 31 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Komar 1879 vs Kiilo 1681
Komar
Wrong
both rated, 198 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Komar 60% vs Kiilo 20%
Komar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Komar 50% vs Kiilo 30%
Komar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Komar +1 · Kiilo -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Komar) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komar form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKomar 1.28 / Kiilo 3.50
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Komar)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12457150
Komar1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 32 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Kiilo3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog19% won 31 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back11% 14 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKomar6wins
AwayKiilo4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKomar leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKomar83.3%5 of 6
AwayKiilo75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Komar6Kiilo4n = 10Komar took 6 of 10
S2Komar5Kiilo5n = 10split evenly
S3Komar5Kiilo5n = 10split evenly
S4Komar4Kiilo3n = 7Komar took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKomarKiiloKomar − KiiloBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.835.6+1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKomarKiiloBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 636 vs 102 / 38638.8%26.4%247 / 636 vs 102 / 386Avg sets wonper match1.71.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.234.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KomarKomar 1.28/Kiilo 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
84.1%
Komar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kiilo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 8 · 14:00V. Komar—611761S. Kiilo—11811113
WAug 3 · 16:00V. Komar—11913113S. Kiilo—5111151
LJul 30 · 15:30V. Komar—117161192S. Kiilo—9111413113
WJun 2 · 06:30V. Komar—11115113S. Kiilo—981141
WMay 16 · 17:14V. Komar—11116113S. Kiilo—461181
WMay 16 · 14:30V. Komar—411117103S. Kiilo—11981172
LMar 2 · 08:30V. Komar—10860S. Kiilo—1211113
LFeb 28 · 17:30V. Komar—7480S. Kiilo—111193
WDec 3 · 10:30V. Komar—11912113S. Kiilo—3111051
WNov 26 · 07:30V. Komar—1211113S. Kiilo—10770
V. Komar10
LAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102LAug 29 · 08:00V. Komar8.506540S. Ponomarenko1.051111113LAug 29 · 06:30V. Komar2.389611141R. Horokh1.5311115163LAug 29 · 05:00V. Komar2.25581121D. Kryshtal1.5711118113WAug 28 · 17:19D. Kryshtal1.678760V. Komar2.081111113LAug 28 · 16:30V. Komar2.38611101192R. Horokh1.53118126113LAug 28 · 15:30V. Komar2.251151011112D. Kryshtal1.57911125133WAug 28 · 14:00V. Komar2.00111129113S. Balabei1.73119101142LAug 28 · 13:00V. Komar8.509760S. Ponomarenko1.051111113LAug 26 · 09:00S. Balabei1.731361111133V. Komar2.001111813112
S. Kiilo10
LSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:00S. Kiilo1.611111113M. Levytskii2.208780WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo3.401181113113S. Kushnirenko1.3071171562LAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo5.0051080R. Horokh1.141112113WAug 19 · 15:00D. Kryshtal1.2271161152S. Kiilo4.00117114113LAug 19 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.33111011113S. Kiilo3.25712951
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