TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037844
Played Aug 29Finished
Vadim Komar
Home
8.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511411––––
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.05
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:36 and never touched — 87.4% is still 87.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
87.4%
87.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVadim Komar above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 48 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 87.4%
48 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Komar 7–133 Serhii Ponomarenko Vadim Komar has won 7 of their 140 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-133 in 140
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 126 in 140, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Komar 1849 vs Ponomarenko 1868
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Komar 20% vs Ponomarenko 80%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Komar 20% vs Ponomarenko 70%
Ponomarenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Komar -2 · Ponomarenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 87% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (80%) is below what odds imply (95%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKomar 8.50 / Ponomarenko 1.05
Signal prob.10% / 90%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13037844
Komar8.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 59 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Ponomarenko1.05
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite88% won 321 of 366
Up 2–0, closes it100% 211 of 212
Up 1–0, closes it95% 261 of 275
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKomar1wins
AwayPonomarenko9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKomar33.3%1 of 3
AwayPonomarenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Komar3Ponomarenko7n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Komar0Ponomarenko10n = 10Ponomarenko took 10 of 10
S3Komar2Ponomarenko8n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S4Komar0Ponomarenko4n = 4Ponomarenko took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricKomarPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match24.237.2−13.0per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKomarPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 650 vs 780 / 86839.2%89.9%255 / 650 vs 780 / 868Avg sets wonper match1.72.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoKomar 8.50/Ponomarenko 1.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.7%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 20 · 09:30V. Komar—115115133S. Ponomarenko—711711112
LJun 18 · 10:29V. Komar—9580S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LJun 18 · 08:00V. Komar—7370S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LJun 2 · 10:38V. Komar—115761S. Ponomarenko—81111113
LJun 2 · 08:00V. Komar—1257101S. Ponomarenko—101111123
LJun 1 · 17:07V. Komar—6480S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LJun 1 · 16:00V. Komar—4640S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LMay 23 · 16:00V. Komar—391191S. Ponomarenko—11119113
LMar 13 · 13:30V. Komar—5590S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LMar 10 · 17:30V. Komar—1920S. Ponomarenko—1111113
V. Komar10
LAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102LAug 29 · 06:30V. Komar2.389611141R. Horokh1.5311115163LAug 29 · 05:00V. Komar2.25581121D. Kryshtal1.5711118113WAug 28 · 17:19D. Kryshtal1.678760V. Komar2.081111113LAug 28 · 16:30V. Komar2.38611101192R. Horokh1.53118126113LAug 28 · 15:30V. Komar2.251151011112D. Kryshtal1.57911125133WAug 28 · 14:00V. Komar2.00111129113S. Balabei1.73119101142LAug 28 · 13:00V. Komar8.509760S. Ponomarenko1.051111113LAug 26 · 09:00S. Balabei1.731361111133V. Komar2.001111813112LAug 26 · 07:30R. Horokh1.5311713113V. Komar2.383111181
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WAug 28 · 13:00V. Komar8.509760S. Ponomarenko1.051111113
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