TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015037
Played Aug 26Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
131161111811131311
Vadim Komar
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Vadim Komar below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 108 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 54.5%
108 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 77–73 Vadim Komar Vadim Komar has won 73 of their 150 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:56What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
77-73 in 150
Balabei
Correct
gap of 4 in 150, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 2002 vs Komar 1873
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 80% vs Komar 0%
Balabei
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 60% vs Komar 40%
Balabei
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei +2 · Komar -5
Komar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Balabei) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komar form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.73 / Komar 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Balabei)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13015037
Balabei1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 210 of 290
Up 2–0, closes it96% 102 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it88% 147 of 167
Komar2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 60 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei6wins
AwayKomar4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei80%4 of 5
AwayKomar60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei5Komar5n = 10split evenly
S2Balabei6Komar4n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S3Balabei4Komar6n = 10Komar took 6 of 10
S4Balabei3Komar5n = 8Komar took 5 of 8
S5Balabei3Komar0n = 3Balabei took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiKomarB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.935.9+3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiKomarBasisWin rate · lifetime499 / 998 vs 253 / 64250%39.4%499 / 998 vs 253 / 642Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiBalabei 1.73/Komar 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 10:38S. Balabei—10970V. Komar—1211113
WAug 20 · 06:00S. Balabei—1261011113V. Komar—101112782
WAug 15 · 13:00S. Balabei—511117113V. Komar—11391132
WAug 13 · 06:00S. Balabei—1113113V. Komar—61150
LAug 12 · 14:00S. Balabei—12111061V. Komar—14712113
WAug 4 · 09:00S. Balabei—41111113V. Komar—114631
WAug 3 · 17:28S. Balabei—11116113V. Komar—341181
LAug 3 · 15:00S. Balabei—119861V. Komar—51111113
LJul 30 · 14:00S. Balabei—991191V. Komar—11116113
WJun 21 · 13:00S. Balabei—111167113V. Komar—98111182
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei1.5011113123D. Kryshtal2.506711101
V. Komar10
LAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102LAug 29 · 08:00V. Komar8.506540S. Ponomarenko1.051111113LAug 29 · 06:30V. Komar2.389611141R. Horokh1.5311115163LAug 29 · 05:00V. Komar2.25581121D. Kryshtal1.5711118113WAug 28 · 17:19D. Kryshtal1.678760V. Komar2.081111113LAug 28 · 16:30V. Komar2.38611101192R. Horokh1.53118126113LAug 28 · 15:30V. Komar2.251151011112D. Kryshtal1.57911125133WAug 28 · 14:00V. Komar2.00111129113S. Balabei1.73119101142LAug 28 · 13:00V. Komar8.509760S. Ponomarenko1.051111113LAug 26 · 07:30R. Horokh1.5311713113V. Komar2.383111181
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