TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031403
Played Aug 28Finished
Vadim Komar
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1111191210911114
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:54 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVadim Komar above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 89 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 56.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Komar 73–77 Serhii Balabei Vadim Komar has won 73 of their 150 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:54What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Balabei
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
73-77 in 150
Balabei
Wrong
gap of 4 in 150, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Komar 1848 vs Balabei 2007
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Komar 0% vs Balabei 80%
Balabei
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Komar 20% vs Balabei 70%
Balabei
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Komar -5 · Balabei -1
Komar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKomar 2.00 / Balabei 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Balabei)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13031403
Komar2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 58 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Balabei1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 212 of 290
Up 2–0, closes it97% 104 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it89% 149 of 168
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKomar4wins
AwayBalabei6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKomar60%3 of 5
AwayBalabei80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Komar5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S2Komar4Balabei6n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S3Komar6Balabei4n = 10Komar took 6 of 10
S4Komar5Balabei3n = 8Komar took 5 of 8
S5Komar0Balabei3n = 3Balabei took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKomarBalabeiK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.938.9−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKomarBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 644 vs 501 / 100139.3%50.1%253 / 644 vs 501 / 1001Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiKomar 2.00/Balabei 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Komar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 10:38V. Komar—1211113S. Balabei—10970
LAug 20 · 06:00V. Komar—101112782S. Balabei—1261011113
LAug 15 · 13:00V. Komar—11391132S. Balabei—511117113
LAug 13 · 06:00V. Komar—61150S. Balabei—1113113
WAug 12 · 14:00V. Komar—14712113S. Balabei—12111061
LAug 4 · 09:00V. Komar—114631S. Balabei—41111113
LAug 3 · 17:28V. Komar—341181S. Balabei—11116113
WAug 3 · 15:00V. Komar—51111113S. Balabei—119861
WJul 30 · 14:00V. Komar—11116113S. Balabei—991191
LJun 21 · 13:00V. Komar—98111182S. Balabei—111167113
V. Komar10
LAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102LAug 29 · 08:00V. Komar8.506540S. Ponomarenko1.051111113LAug 29 · 06:30V. Komar2.389611141R. Horokh1.5311115163LAug 29 · 05:00V. Komar2.25581121D. Kryshtal1.5711118113WAug 28 · 17:19D. Kryshtal1.678760V. Komar2.081111113LAug 28 · 16:30V. Komar2.38611101192R. Horokh1.53118126113LAug 28 · 15:30V. Komar2.251151011112D. Kryshtal1.57911125133LAug 28 · 13:00V. Komar8.509760S. Ponomarenko1.051111113LAug 26 · 09:00S. Balabei1.731361111133V. Komar2.001111813112LAug 26 · 07:30R. Horokh1.5311713113V. Komar2.383111181
S. Balabei10
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113WAug 26 · 09:00S. Balabei1.731361111133V. Komar2.001111813112
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