TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094608
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Kiilo
Home
5.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119911611118611
Roman Horokh
Away
1.14
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kiilo above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Roman Horokh at 86.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kiilo 9–87 Roman Horokh Serhii Kiilo has won 9 of their 96 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-87 in 96
Horokh
Correct
gap of 78 in 96, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kiilo 1746 vs Horokh 2016
Horokh
Correct
both rated, 270 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kiilo 40% vs Horokh 80%
Horokh
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kiilo 50% vs Horokh 80%
Horokh
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kiilo -2 · Horokh +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Horokh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kiilo form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKiilo 5.00 / Horokh 1.14
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Horokh)+5.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094608
Kiilo5.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back12% 15 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 79
Horokh1.14
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite65% won 289 of 443
Up 2–0, closes it96% 158 of 164
Up 1–0, closes it81% 225 of 278
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKiilo1wins
AwayHorokh9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHorokh leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKiilon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHorokh88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kiilo1Horokh9n = 10Horokh took 9 of 10
S2Kiilo4Horokh6n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S3Kiilo3Horokh7n = 10Horokh took 7 of 10
S4Kiilo3Horokh4n = 7Horokh took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKiiloHorokhK − HBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.640.9−7.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKiiloHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 369 vs 706 / 125826.6%56.1%98 / 369 vs 706 / 1258Avg sets wonper match1.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhKiilo 5.00/Horokh 1.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo—51080R. Horokh—1112113
LAug 11 · 12:00S. Kiilo—281281R. Horokh—111110113
LJul 30 · 16:58S. Kiilo—1147131R. Horokh—61111153
LJul 30 · 14:30S. Kiilo—8111011102R. Horokh—115129123
LJul 24 · 07:30S. Kiilo—5690R. Horokh—1111113
WJul 16 · 12:00S. Kiilo—91111143R. Horokh—1177121
LJul 6 · 11:58S. Kiilo—561291R. Horokh—111110113
LJul 2 · 14:30S. Kiilo—41171162R. Horokh—117117113
LJun 30 · 14:30S. Kiilo—101360R. Horokh—1215113
LJun 29 · 16:58S. Kiilo—1311451R. Horokh—15511113
S. Kiilo10
LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:00S. Kiilo1.611111113M. Levytskii2.208780WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo3.401181113113S. Kushnirenko1.3071171562LAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo5.0051080R. Horokh1.141112113WAug 19 · 15:00D. Kryshtal1.2271161152S. Kiilo4.00117114113WAug 19 · 14:00V. Komar1.281110961S. Kiilo3.5031211113LAug 19 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.33111011113S. Kiilo3.25712951
R. Horokh10
WSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760WSep 2 · 16:00M. Levytskii6.5079111152R. Horokh1.10111157113LSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572WSep 2 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.25101190R. Horokh1.571213113WSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113LAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113WAug 31 · 16:00D. Yurkov2.2061160R. Horokh1.611113113WAug 31 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.759111091R. Horokh1.4011912113WAug 31 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.509101181R. Horokh1.5011128113WAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo5.0051080R. Horokh1.141112113
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